Page 54: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 2014)

54 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • JUNE 2014 project investment decision. We have been making an annual ? ve year fore- cast since the mid-1990s. Our forecast in 2014 anticipates orders for 104 to 150 production ? oaters between 2014 -2018.

This is an average of approximately 20 to 30 production ? oater orders annually.

As indicated below, the most likely fore- cast of orders is 25 to 30% greater than actual orders over previous ? ve year pe- riods. How does this forecast correspond with events over the past ? ve months?

Did we get it right so far?

Since January 2014 there have been or- ders for seven production ? oaters – ? ive

FPSOs, one gas/condensate production barge and one LNG regas barge. The ? ve-month order pace equates to ~17 units on an annualized basis. So at the moment our forecast is higher than actu- al experience. Looking forward through the remainder of the year, at least a doz- en of the production ? oaters listed ap- pear ready to go to contract by the end of 2014. This would bring the 2014 orders to within the forecast range, though at the lower end of the forecast range.

But near term underlying market con- ditions have been trending a bit south.

Energy companies have been reducing

Capex budgets and unconventional oil projects are drawing investment resourc- es from deepwater. This could delay some investment decisions and dampen production ? oater contracts over the next 6 to 12 months.

THE 2014 YEARBOOK: STATISTICS

Breakdown of Planned

Projects by

Location of Field (As of June 1, 2014)

Project Location # of Projects

Africa 48

Brazil 44

SE Asia 38

GOM 22

No. Europe 22

Aust/NZ 16

Medit 10

SW Asia 10

Other 14

Total 224

BY JIM MCCAUL, IMA

IMA provides market analysis and stra- tegic planning advice in the marine and offshore sectors. Over 40 years we have performed more than 350 business con- sulting assignments for 170+ clients in 40+ countries. We have assisted numer- ous shipbuilders, ship repair yards and manufacturers in forming a a plan of action to penetrate the offshore market.

Our assignments have included advice on acquiring an FPSO contractor, form- ing an alliance to bid for large FPSO contracts, satisfying local content re- quirements and targeting unmet require- ments through technology development. t: 1 202 333 8501 / e: imaassoc@msn. com / w: www.imastudies.com

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