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Maritime Risk

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portrayed by some. The United Nations

Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a fundamental framework for marine navigation and other activities according to a set of maritime zones of jurisdiction.

However, UNCLOS under Article 234 does allow coastal states the right to adopt and enforce non-discriminatory laws and regulations for the prevention, reduction and control of marine pollu- tion in their ice-covered waters. The

Russian Federation and Canada have adopted such Arctic regulations in recent decades.

One of the challenges for marine operators is that the regulations of the two countries are different, indicating a need for future ‘harmonization’ of the various coastal state regimes into a set of international rules and standards that are mandatory. For the global maritime community bent on using a future

Arctic Ocean, the lack of consistent and non-discriminatory Arctic ship rules is a continuing liability that only the IMO can address. And it is the IMO that

AMSA notes is the competent UN agency to address issues related to mar- itime safety, security and environmental protection related of international ship- ping. The eight Arctic states, all who are active members of IMO, will need to work closely together and engage with non-Arctic state members, to gain support for Arctic-specific rules and regulations to reduce the risks inherent in Arctic navigation.

Uncertainties are many when thinking about the future of Arctic marine navi- gation. The AMSA team used a scenar- ios approach to develop a set of plausi- ble futures of Arctic marine activity that could indicate how key uncertainties might evolve. Selected key uncertain- ties (of more than 120 identified) included: the legal and governance regimes; oil and gas prices; global com- modities prices of nickel, copper, zinc, high grade iron ore, coal, and others known to be abundant in the Arctic; cli- mate change and sea ice variability; new resource discoveries; the safety of other global marine routes (the Suez and Panama canals); limited and sea- sonal windows for Arctic marine opera- tions; a major Arctic maritime disaster; the roles and influence of the marine insurance industry; transit fees on arctic waterways; world trade patterns; advanced and unforeseen Arctic ship technologies; and, the roles of non-

Arctic states such as China, Japan,

Korea and others.

Two key drivers and uncertainties were selected to frame the AMSA sce- narios: (1) Resources and trade (the level of demand for Arctic natural resources and trade); and (2) Maritime Professional 55

Icebreaker Healy carves a path.

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