The Outlook

  • Technology Development To Be Given Added Emphasis Navy Shipbuilding Program Navy ship construction has been the major business driver for shipbuilders and ship systems manufacturers in this country over the past decade. This article deals specifically with Navy ship construction over the next 10 years. As documented in IMA's report, the Navy program is entering a period which will dramatically impact industry.

    As shown in Exhibit 1, the U.S.

    Navy over the past eight years has funded construction or conversion of 175 major ships—an average of 22 ships per year. As a result, the size of the deployable battle forces has grown from 479 ships in 1980 to 568 ships currently—with 574 ships projected for 1990. Exhibit 2 shows the trend and composition of the deployable battle force over the past decade.

    This program has had a major impact on industry. Exhibit 3 shows the shipyards now involved in Navy ship construction or conversion. Exhibit 4 shows the trend in the number of shipyards building or repairing Navy ships over the period 1978- 1988.

    Will Navy Maintain the Pace of Ship Construction?

    The Assistant Secretary of Navy (S & L) last year stated: " .v. to keep the size of Navy we are talking about, you would need to build at a continuing pace of 18 to 20 ships a year. ..." It is useful to compare this projected rate of construction with past activity. The Navy ordered 236 ships in the 1960s—an average of almost 24 ships annually. During the 1970s (a period of declining defense spending), the Navy bought 147 ships—an average of 15 ships annually. In the 1980s, the Navy has thus far ordered 184 ships—an average of 20 ships annually. Will the pace of orders in th 1990s be similar to the 1960s/1980s—or the 1970s?

    It is also useful to examine the trend in unit cost. Navy ships in the 1960s cost an average of $24 million each. This figure became $88 million in the 1970s—and $209 million in the 1980s.

    No one questions that the ships now being ordered are technologically superior to those ordered in the 1960s. Rather, the question is whether the Navy can continue to maintain a building pace of 18 to 20 per year in light of (1) future funding constraints and (2) continued growth in ship prices.

    During the 1980s there was minimal conflict among the proponents of submarine, surface combatant and aircraft carrier programs. There was enough money for growth in all three areas. Things have changed— and difficult trade-offs need to be made. There are not sufficient funds for all of the proposed programs.

    More clashes over priorities and funds can be expected within the Navy. Submariners, for example, have already been staking their claim to funds by talking up a future role for submarines which infringes on the traditional turf of aircraft carriers.

    Technology Development Will Be Given Added Emphasis The Navy is under pressure to study and introduce new concepts— not simply buy more of the same.

    Technology-push developments are already getting greater attention in the Navy. Opportunities have opened in a variety of new areas— including fiber optics, composite armor, stealth concepts, ship survivability, etc.

    It is important to remember that necessary changes will bring new opportunities and the fact still remains that the Navy plans call for an average of $35 billion annually in expenditures over the next 10 years, approximately a third of which will be spent for ship equipment.

    iMA has just completed an indepth assessment of Navy ship construction over the next ten years.

    The 220-page report, released in June 1989, evaluates future business drivers and assesses likely construction requirements in nine categories of Navy ships: • submarines • surface combatants • aircraft carriers • amphibious ships • combat logistics ships • sealift ships • mine warfare ships • ocean survey and surveillance ships • boats and service craft.

    Only a few of the findings and conclusions from the report are highlighted in the above article.

    More in-depth and extensive coverage is available in the full IMA report, which can be purchased for $950. To order, contact: IMA Associates, Inc., 835 New Hampshire Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C.

    20037; telephone: (202) 333-8501; and telefax: (202) 333-8504.

  • Status of U.S. Navy Ship Modernization and Maintenance NAVY BUDGET The proposed Navy budget is $101.7 billion in FY 1990 and $105.1 billion in FY 1991. This would represent a three to four percent increase over current spending. Described below are Navy's plans and budget for major program activitie

  • hopes and expectations that shipyards in Canada had "bottomed- out" from the 1985-86 slump and were now into a gradual recovery phase. And now for the outlook—aye, there's the rub! On the commercial side, the last delivery of vessels currently under construction is scheduled for January 1990, and very

  • NAVY PROJECTS SPENDING $11 BILLION PER YEAR Editor's Note: This article only forecasts business opportunities in the shipbuilding sector. For a projection of business opportunities in the ship repair and maintenance sector over the next 10 years, see Mr. McCaul's article, "U.S. Ship Maintenance &

  • . During the first quarter of 1988, several new contracts were awarded, with a virtual 50-50 balance between new construction and refit/ repair. The outlook through '88 into the next decade appears promising, for several reasons. First, world shipping increased steadily over the past 20 months, with

  • When the Administration assumed office in 1981, the shipbuilding industry understood that it would be challenged to meet the performance and cost objectives of an expanded naval construction program. Further, the shipbuilding industry knew that performing the backlog of commercial and Navy work

  • percent from 1984, and at C$131,204,000 was the lowest since 1978. This is a reflection of the shipping industry's financial difficulties worldwide. The outlook for the repair industry in 1986, both commercial and government, is clouded by the government's decision to allocate work previously done in

  • Editor's note: The following report is reprinted from the 1984 Annual Report of the Shipbuilders Council of America that was released in April, 1985. For the shipbuilding and shiprepair industries, 1984 was a year in which "holding ground" was a primary operative phrase. The present policy of the

  • "The outlook for marine construction in the Gulf of Mexico in the 1980s is, in my view, not only good, it is great," Robert E. Howson, president of McDermott Marine Construction, recently told participants in a symposium sponsored by the University of New Orleans on the "Economic Future of the Gulf

  • There are 2,511 identified pending, probable and possible subsea production wells forecast (base case) worldwide over the next six years. Some 18 percent of these subsea completions will be installed in North America, 30 percent in Africa/Mediterranean, eight percent in Asia-Pacific, 26 percent in the

  • are both expected to see declines in expenditure. Asia's forecast five-year spend is approximately $4.5 billion less than the previous period, and the outlook is similar in Western Europe, where forecast expenditure is more than $5.2 billion less than the 1998-2002 level. The biggest influence on these

  • strengths/vulnerabilities and evaluate options for optimizing market position. This article is taken from a new in-depth assessment by IMA of the outlook for FPSO vessels, production semis, TLPs and spars. The HO page report is the 19th in a series of in-depth analyses by IMA of this market sector

  • MN Feb-24#4  on the political side where the outlook is hazy at best. 
Gary)
    February 2024 - Marine News page: 4

    change, of Mike Kozlowski • [email protected] Tel: 561-733-2477 Fax: 561-732-9670 course, especially on the political side where the outlook is hazy at best. Gary Lewis • [email protected] But one thing is for certain, it’s going to be a wild ride. Tel: 516-441-7258

  • MT Jan-24#54 , it’s widely acknowledged that 
the maturing of ? oating wind)
    January 2024 - Marine Technology Reporter page: 54

    PREPARING FOR A FLOATING WIND FUTURE All images courtesy Gazelle Offshore Wind As offshore wind power spreads globally, it’s widely acknowledged that the maturing of ? oating wind power platforms will exponentially increase the availability of resources, as the majority of wind power lies outside the

  • MN Nov-23#35 Schwarz, there is a promising outlook there. “Worldwide)
    November 2023 - Marine News page: 35

    Schwarz, there is a promising outlook there. “Worldwide there is a growing imperative to reduce emissions,” he ex- plained. “Across the United States, we see more attention, action and investment to develop shore-based power instal- lations as part of the overall effort of port decarbonization, which

  • MR Nov-23#23  on board as  Pomeroy said: “The outlook for now for the economy)
    November 2023 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 23

    , Schellenberger said. switched from production of goods to a buyer of them. One in three seafarers looks for connectivity on board as Pomeroy said: “The outlook for now for the economy feed- more important than salary when looking at which owner or ing back into shipping isn’t great, but it will come back

  • MR Sep-23#44  shipping thrived during Covid, the thrill is gone as rapidly)
    September 2023 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 44

    CONTAINER SHIPPING OUTLOOK Container Shipping 2023: Post-Covid Turmoil Continues ©eyewave/AdobeStock While container shipping thrived during Covid, the thrill is gone as rapidly changing trade patterns premised on geopolitical turmoil and logistic chain snarls have sent container rates racing to the

  • MR Aug-23#23  wind are being established  The outlook is not bright, however)
    August 2023 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 23

    sels (CTVs) will have to be built in the US to meet Jones LNG carriers. Act requirements. Ambitious targets for offshore wind are being established The outlook is not bright, however. Lewis says it is already in many parts of the world. In the US, the Bureau of Ocean clear that ships being built in US

  • MR Jun-23#19  navigation equipment. The incident received  ties)
    June 2023 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 19

    a pier almost 200 miles away, demonstrating a capability law, including transportation systems and commercial facili- to compromise navigation equipment. The incident received ties. CIRCIA requires these entities to report cyber-incidents global attention and was attributed to AIS spoo? ng tech- and payments

  • MR May-23#30  VOYAGE 
OPTIMIZATION: 
THE DEMISE OF THE DATA SILO
We’ve)
    May 2023 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 30

    GREEN MARINE METIS DATA-DRIVEN VOYAGE OPTIMIZATION: THE DEMISE OF THE DATA SILO We’ve had the means for a while, now we have the incentive to crush the data siloes that are holding back voyage optimization. By Wendy Laursen ike kids in the sandpit, owners and charterers are er and charterer resulting

  • MR Aug-22#5 SETTING THE COURSE TO LOW CARBON SHIPPING
ZERO CARBON)
    August 2022 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 5

    SETTING THE COURSE TO LOW CARBON SHIPPING ZERO CARBON OUTLOOK Download your copy today www.eagle.org/outlook2022 MR #8 (1-17).indd 5 8/2/2022 1:48:36 PM

  • MT Jul-22#52  to minimize  “Investments in the offshore energy sector)
    July 2022 - Marine Technology Reporter page: 52

    Vessels Innovative new vessels, technologies and concepts range and endurance, as well as active stabilizers to minimize “Investments in the offshore energy sector are growing at roll. The new design has 12m and 15m variants, with the 12m a massive rate. The Argeo Argus is a major breakthrough in version

  • MR Jun-22#28  commitments from states. The Bureau of Ocean 
of offshore)
    June 2022 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 28

    federal permitting review and 17.5 GW of project capacity has slowing on its journey to deploy 30 gigawatts (GW) secured offtake commitments from states. The Bureau of Ocean of offshore wind by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. Energy Management (BOEM) has completed a successful Caro- TBased on current project activity

  • MR Jun-22#Cover  for maritime, including 
the “next, next generation”)
    June 2022 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: Cover

    June 2022 MARITIME REPORTER AND ENGINEERING NEWS marinelink.com VAN OORD Pieter Van Oord’s outlook for maritime, including the “next, next generation” in offshore wind. Port Logistics Offshore Wind US Coast Guard Small Cutters Patrol a Big Ocean Digitalization One-on-One with “Mr. ECDIS” Tor Svanes Marine

  • MR May-22#11  ?  gures on asset play over the last 5  and Solstad. Market)
    May 2022 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 11

    those ? gures on asset play over the last 5 and Solstad. Market rumors suggest that ing throughout 2022, and it looks like years. Eastern Navigation timed the mar- several owners are increasing their ask- it could be a pivotal year for the sector. ket perfectly, both from a purchasing and ing prices

  • MN May-22#35  
(CSD), including the recently launched 28-inch)
    May 2022 - Marine News page: 35

    Feature Dredging (CSD), including the recently launched 28-inch General Bradley, with two more newbuild CSDs—the 18-inch General Marshall and 32-inch General Arnold—and a trailing suction hopper dredge (TSHD) Admiral Nimitz on the way. “We also have a host of support equipment, tugboats, barges and

  • MN Apr-22#4  254-6271
www.marinelink.com
The future of U.S. offshore)
    April 2022 - Marine News page: 4

    News (ISSN#1087-3864) (USPS#013-952) Editor’s Note New York: 118 E. 25th St., New York, NY 10010 tel: (212) 477-6700; fax: (212) 254-6271 www.marinelink.com The future of U.S. offshore wind has never been brighter. A step-change occurred CEO in 2021 when the Biden Administration an- John C. O’Malley • jomalley@mari

  • MN Mar-22#24  setup looks good… And while the outlook for U.S.  Noteworthy)
    March 2022 - Marine News page: 24

    in? ect higher. Not surprisingly…the near- and medium- Hill, who helped to push this funding over the goal line.” term setup looks good… And while the outlook for U.S. Noteworthy projects funded included the Kentucky Lock GDP remains constructive, which should buoy continued (on the Tennessee River

  • MN Mar-22#21  Waterways
Medium term trends on the waterway system were dis-
cussed)
    March 2022 - Marine News page: 21

    Feature Inland Waterways Medium term trends on the waterway system were dis- cussed within a detailed study on the waterways released by Vanderbilt University in September 2021. The authors not- ed, “The last 20 years validate that the underlying markets relevant to barge demand are stable and resilient

  • MT Jan-22#25 Deformed sea ice tops the coastal waters 
of the)
    January 2022 - Marine Technology Reporter page: 25

    Deformed sea ice tops the coastal waters of the Bering Sea near Toksook Bay on April 20, 2013. Rapid ice drift in the Bering Sea is a hazard for ? shing vessels. Photo by Hajo Eicken, UAF International Arctic Research Center af? liate research professor at IARC, and others surveyed crabbers. They

  • MT Jan-22#24 THE ARCTIC
Foundation began providing ?  nancial support)
    January 2022 - Marine Technology Reporter page: 24

    THE ARCTIC Foundation began providing ? nancial support in 2014, allowing Improvement also has occurred in the geographic scope of the eventual inclusion of forecasts for Alaska and Antarctica. the forecasts, which for ? ve years have included the Bering, The network uses dozens of forecasts from a

  • MT Jan-22#23  have improved markedly since the 
founding of an international)
    January 2022 - Marine Technology Reporter page: 23

    ea ice predictions have improved markedly since the founding of an international forecasting and monitoring S network 14 years ago. “These forecasts are quite encouraging in their increasing accuracy,” said Uma Bhatt, an atmospheric sciences profes- sor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical

  • MN Jan-22#14  Vessels 
Pandemic Setback Strengthens 
Resolve to Remain Positive)
    January 2022 - Marine News page: 14

    Column Passenger Vessels Pandemic Setback Strengthens Resolve to Remain Positive By Mike Corrigan, CEO, Interferry Interferry CEO Mike Corrigan looks beyond the latest COVID-19 complications to explain why the global trade association has reasons to believe the industry’s future is ultimately secure.

  • MN Jan-22#4  (212) 254-6271
Challenges in the North American mari-
www)
    January 2022 - Marine News page: 4

    Note tel: (561) 732-4368; fax: (561) 732-6984 New York: 118 E. 25th St., New York, NY 10010 tel: (212) 477-6700; fax: (212) 254-6271 Challenges in the North American mari- www.marinelink.com time sector are as plentiful today as they’ve PUBLISHER been in recent memory. COVID-19, crew/ John C. O’Malley

  • MR Jan-22#21 neta Shipping Index (XSI) for the contract market revealed)
    January 2022 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 21

    neta Shipping Index (XSI) for the contract market revealed and port worker shortages will only worsen as the populations a monthly increase of 16.3% month-over-month. This repre- in North America, the UK, and the EU continues to age out. sented the largest month-on-month jump since July and took Consumer

  • MR Nov-21#16 Back to the Drawing Board 
Figure 3: Design Spiral 2 Circa)
    November 2021 - Maritime Reporter and Engineering News page: 16

    Back to the Drawing Board Figure 3: Design Spiral 2 Circa 1995 ing worldwide cargo shipping system ef? ciencies. But getting back to the inef? ciency of ef? cient components, it is pos- sible to design a very ef? cient ship, but the use of that ship can very well result in less-than-optimal transportati