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Editor’s Column

Colloquy

Nina M Rach

Antifragility: Can this industry thrive with disorder?

Despite the widespread pop-culture Swan, focused on improbable, from volatility, variability, stress interpretation of the Mayan unexpected events, but didn’t and disorder . . . this crucial quality

D calendar, the world did not end offer solutions for the world’s is “antifragile”. We have been in an apocalypse on 21 December unpredictability and volatility. fragilizing . . . almost everything 2012, just as the Y2K date bug did In Antifragile, Taleb says that [by] suppressing randomness and not cause utilities and other critical ‘black swan’ events are likely to volatility.’ infrastructure to fail on 1 January increase, due to globalization and Increasing complexity and 2000. Scaremongering predicted other factors, and that we should interconnectedness can lead to disorder, but the ensuing paranoia more vulnerable systems, subject to led to Y2K preparation that failure through myriad pathways –

The concept apparently resolved date coding the trick is to ? gure out the fragility of antifragility issues in an orderly way. of a system. ‘Not seeing a tsunami Engineering in the oil & gas or an economic event coming is is that industry generally bene? ts from excusable; building something certain things predictable circumstances. Project fragile to them is not,’ says Taleb.

planning and implementation are This industry favors cost-effective, can improve based on in-depth studies and durable solutions, characterized and even grow well-reasoned forecasts, subject by their ability to exist without to policies, ordinances, laws, signi? cant deterioration; they stronger when and ultimately, contracts. It may are not easily altered or broken, subjected to be impossible to foresee every they are not fragile or tenuous. stress or turmoil.

possibility, but we rationally But antifragility is beyond robust; prepare for the most likely and the aggressiveness is driven by probable scenarios. We build in plan for unpredictable, highly- paranoia, pressing forward toward safety factors and contingencies consequential events by making our a big reward, while minimizing for unexpected and emergency systems ‘antifragile’. Although he exposure to risk.

situations. The most successful doesn’t cite any examples from the But the pursuit of greater designs – and companies – are petroleum industry, many of the ef? ciency can introduce fragility. ef? cient, robust and ? exible. concepts are applicable. Lean production practices and The multidisciplinary, 2012 supply chains remove all slack from book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fragility, durability the system and may optimize ? ow,

Antifragile – Things that Gain Fragility ‘is the quality of things but they remove the operating safety from Disorder, suggests a different that are vulnerable to volatility’, net and increase risk.

perspective for success – that we Taleb writes. ‘The opposite of should deliberately build systems fragile . . . isn’t robust or sturdy Disorder that can bene? t from stress. When or resilient – things with these On a global scale or in the geologic we remove stress from a system, qualities are simply dif? cult to time-frame, it’s hard to grasp the it can weaken and become fragile. break. To deal with black swans, notion of disorder. The laws of

Taleb’s 2007 best-seller, The Black we instead need things that gain physics dictate movement and

OE | January 2013 oedigital.com 18 oe_Nina.indd 18 03/01/2013 13:18