Page 89: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Oct/Nov 2013)

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Offshore Europe energy-independent, but Hayward

Hayward predicts geopolitical, price, expects North America to become a technology trends for next decade net exporter. The US$100 barrel is the

By Nina Rach play concepts and how to effciently new norm, and the sector will con-

Former BP CEO Tony Hayward, now use available technologies. Hayward tinue to attract capital. US natural gas

CEO of Genel Energy, gave the key- cited shale development, where prices will settle at $4-5/Mcf, and it is note speech at an Offshore Europe hardware may be openly available, inevitable that the link between oil and conference session but expertise is necessary to achieve gas prices will break down. Given the on independent oil success. global gas glut, revisiting gas- to- liq- companies. Hayward IOCs have been successful in open- uids seems inevitable, but GTL needs focused on geo- ing new plays through innovation a breakthrough technology, he said. politics, prices, and and low-cost development and he Supermajors will continue to dominate technology, while explained why: Arctic exploration, deepwater Gulf explaining the role of • High oil & gas prices have made of Mexico and West African develop-

Tony Hayward the independent in risk capital readily available. ment, but other markets are open for challenging conventional thinking. • Hardware and experienced staff IOCS to fourish.

Geopolitics has defned the feld of are freely available. Session chair James Paton said IOCs play, he said, infuenced by OPEC, “the • Independents are nimble, will- will beat costs by collaboration and most successful cartel in history,” the ing to take risks, carry little-to-no shared infrastructure. Most discoveries collapse of the Soviet Union, and the political baggage, and have realistic are likely to be less than 10MM bbl, opening-closing of Venezuela. expectations. and the secret to success in any mature

Technology is the lifeblood of our In the next decade, Hayward pre- basin is to “make the pie as big as industry, and he said innovation has dicts that OPEC will remain in place; possible” and devise a fair (equitable) been characterized more by incremen- Russian state dominance will preclude strategy to divide it. tal moves than major step-changes. outside investment; and turmoil in

Simon Flowers, Wood Mackenzie, said

Sharing and plagiarism of technology the Middle East will continue, but “The entrepreneurial approach, seen hardware is rife, but the real value is the area will hold many opportuni- over the last 10 years, will keep indepen- expertise and deep familiarity with ties for IOCs. The US will not become dents ahead of the competition.”

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