Page 12: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Jan/Feb 2015)

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Opinion

ThoughtStream

John Drake, Ake Group 2015 – the global risk outlook he landscape of risk will continue been tackled in Somalia so the threat they do there could be a ? ood of invest-

T to change in 2015 for the offshore may return again.

ment in the offshore upstream sector, in

Piracy will remain a concern in other upstream sector. While new risks are both the Persian Gulf and the Caspian parts of the world. In Southeast Asia, expected to appear, many will remain

Sea.

localized robberies targeting tankers familiar and consistent with recent Elsewhere in the Caspian region, the will remain a concern in some areas, years. Some of the biggest concerns are lack of rule of law and corruption will particularly the Strait of Malacca, also likely to be eclipsed by potential hinder investment in places such as although this will largely harm the opportunities. Turkmenistan. Upstream investment will

The biggest area of concern will also likely remain limited in Kazakhstan downstream sector.

remain the oil-rich west coast of Africa. until the ill-fated Kashagan project comes

International tensions will also per-

The risk of offshore workers contract- back online, but that is not likely until sist in the South China Sea, as national ing Ebola will be statistically low, but 2016.

interests compete for ownership of the the disease outbreak will still have an

The opportunities in the Latin hydrocarbon-rich region. However, impact on the sector. Border closures

American region are likely to outweigh while these tensions are fueled by and temporary airline suspensions the risks. Peace talks between the massive upstream potential and could could disrupt personnel movements

Colombian government and FARC rebels lead to occasional spats and sporadic while the perception of risk could make remain at risk of failure. However, even if clashes, they are not likely to result in it harder for companies to ? nd employ- rebel violence increases and threatens the a war.

ees willing to travel to the region. energy sector onshore it will likely pose

Ongoing pressure on regional health- little risk to offshore interests. The rebels care systems could also have an impact simply do not have the capacity to target “Eastern Ukraine will remain on treatment or medevac procedures for maritime interests, or even the airports heavily disputed, non-Ebola issues. Organizations would and transport routes that energy workers be well-advised to liaise with their use to travel to and from their work in with a subsequent medical evacuation providers in order the country.

impact on the political risk to plan for potential adverse scenarios The greatest developments in the in the coming year. offshore upstream sector in Latin environment

The lack of security on the land will

America are likely to take place in in Russia” also continue to breed criminality at

Mexico, where recent energy reforms sea with more attacks expected to target are expected to provide numerous vessels involved in the offshore sector. opportunities. Rather than political

Personnel will remain at risk of kidnap Conventional warfare will be much risks, which are deemed to be relatively for ransom while the occasional hijacking more of an issue in another part of the few, the greatest concern in the minds of tankers will also have an impact on the world: Eastern Ukraine will remain of most risk managers will likely be downstream sector. heavily disputed, with a subsequent a potential repeat of the Deepwater

The menace posed by Somali piracy impact on the political risk environment

Horizon disaster. has all but diminished off the east in Russia. International sanctions on

John Drake runs the intelligence coast of Africa. Once a major threat Moscow will hinder efforts to develop department of international risk mitiga- to shipping and a signi? cant concern the country’s emerging upstream Arctic tion company AKE. Formerly based for offshore interests, the implementa- operations. Without foreign ? nance and in AKE’s Baghdad of? ce he has also tion of proper risk mitigation practices technical expertise, the sector will be worked in Aberdeen, Hereford and Sri by vessels and improved coordination slow to develop.

Further south, sanctions will con-

Lanka. His team, based in the Lloyd’s of of international navies has made it a tinue to block investment in Iran. At

London building, advise companies and dangerous and unpro? table business this stage, international negotiations organisations on a variety of security, venture for the pirates. Nonetheless, the are unlikely to open the country up to political and travel risk issues around root causes of piracy, such as poverty offshore investment in 2015, but when the world. and an absence of rule of law, have not

January 2015 | OE oedigital.com 14 014_OE0115_thoughtstream.indd 14 12/22/14 10:15 AM