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Crude oil full cycle breakeven prices deepwater projects 100 101 98 80 80 76 60 59 49 40 usd/bbl 35 31 20 0

Lucapa Seme Tubular Tubular Solan Saint Malo Saint Malo Lula Johan Lucapa Seme Tubular Solan Saint Malo Lula Johan GoliatGoliat (2014) (2014) Bells (2014) (2015) (2011) Castberg (2015) (2014) (2020)

Source: GlobalData

Natural gas full cycle breakeven prices deepwater projects deepwater 16 16.2 14 13.7 12 12.5 projects 10 8.7 8 7.4 7.4 7.4 6 5.6 usd/mcf 4 4.5 2 restrictions in transportation that reduces the options for export markets and makes them dependent on gas 0

Pelican Block 1,Greater Pelican Block 1,Greater Pluto Liwan North Dalit Dalit North Liwan Pluto Pelican Block 1,Greater Corrib Laggan-Corrib Laggan-Laggan- domestic prices. LNG projects, such as Greater Gorgon (2014) Alexandria(2014) LNG (2014) 3 and 4 Gorgon (2014) Tormore

Concession (2012) Complex(2014) (2014)

Source: in Australia, have a clear advantage in reaching high gas (2018) (2022)

GlobalData price markets in Asia, countering the negative impact from the fall in the oil price, but increased competition and potential for a lower gas price looms. Adrian Lara directs GlobalData’s upstream

Historically, deep and ultra-deepwater projects have expe- team in charge of conducting quantitative rienced cycles in the rise and fall of oil prices. Their develop- and qualitative research relating to oil and ment requires a long-term view and, as argued before, pricing gas activities in Latin American countries. ? uctuation is generally dealt with through delays, with opera- Lara has several years of experience as an tors turning to managing producing and already under-develop- oil and gas industry analyst, having held ment projects. Deepwater operators tend to be well-established different positions within the trading arm of and ? nancially sound companies with well-diversi? ed port- Mexican state-owned company Pemex, folios of upstream assets mitigating risk. Whenever possible, where he focused on analysis of oil and gas they actively try to redirect their investment strategy towards fundamentals in the context of upstream exporting strategies fundamentals in the context of upstream exporting strategies assets that can provide the highest amount of cash ? ow. In this and international trading. Lara was also a visiting research and international trading. Lara was also a visiting research context, production assets are given priority over exploration fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies where his fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies where his assets that have a less certain ? ow of associated revenues. It is research focused on oil supply scenarios in the Western research focused on oil supply scenarios in the Western possible that some new deepwater exploration areas, such as Hemisphere. Lara has a MS in mineral and energy economics Hemisphere. Lara has a MS in mineral and energy economics the ones on the Mexican side of the Gulf of Mexico, will face from the Colorado School of Mines, with a specialization in oil from the Colorado School of Mines, with a specialization in oil a slowdown in the pace of their exploration and development, and gas from the Institut Français du Pétrole. He has a BA in and gas from the Institut Français du Pétrole. He has a BA in or worse, they might not gain the interest of major oil and gas economics and political science from the Instituto Tecnológico economics and political science from the Instituto Tecnológico companies if the bidding terms are not attractive enough. Autónomo de México (ITAM).Autónomo de México (ITAM).

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