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OFFSHORE RENEWABLES

Picking up wind

About US$336 billion (€300 billion) could be spent in offshore wind capex over the next 10 years, with cumulative capacity surpassing 57GW. Douglas Westwood’s Rachel Stonehouse explains. umulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach most of this expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 develop- 57GW by 2024, driven by the continued development ments take place. Germany will also install over 11GW, with

C of established markets such as the UK, Germany and a longer term outlook predicting activity levels will recover

China and bolstered by emerging markets such as the US and in 2018 following a slowdown in capacity installed 2016-17.

France. China is expected to install over 8GW of capacity – this is lower

Over 5.3GW of capacity is expected to be installed in 2015, than previously targeted, but still represents a strong growth with additions anticipated to remain on an upward trend, market.

peaking at 7.5GW in 2020. Capital expenditure will total $269 Emerging markets include countries such as the US and billion (€240 billion) between 2015 and 2024. France, who are expected to have their frst operational wind

However, these fgures only include projects which have farms in 2015 and 2017 respectively. The US is expected to surpassed the conceptual phase of development, resulting in install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and a large potential for upside post-2020 totaling $67 billion (€60 France 3.2GW. Other emerging markets include countries billion). This upside potential assumes that a proportion of with historically low levels of offshore wind activity, such as conceptual and speculative projects will progress through the Sweden, Denmark and Belgium. stages of development.

Market forecast: components

Capital costs have reduced recently, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastruc- Over 10,200 additional turbines will be installed by 2024, with ture (such as support structures) being required. This presents the majority in China, Germany and the UK. The 6MW turbine new challenges for installation contractors but should result in is the most common size, with <4MW turbine installations lower operational expenditures once wind farms go on-line. reducing dramatically by 2025. Whilst Siemens will maintain

The UK will install over 11GW over the next ten years, with the majority market share, the growth of markets such as China

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