Page 12: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Mar/Apr 2020)

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REGION GoM Outlook Last year was one of the first positive-looking years. There was a lot of excitement.

– WILLIAM TURNER,

WELLIGENCE ENERGY ANALYTICS

Source: Welligence tween 2021 through 2024, according to BSEE. Many deepwater projects are intended to produce for 25 “Tangible activity is picking up,” Turner says. For examples, years or more, but some may be reluctant to invest in a long- he cites the drilling of Chevron’s Clingman’s Dome, which term project in the face of what many call the energy transi- could tie back to Thunder Hawk, and Equinor’s Monument, tion, during which the world is expected to shift away from which is an ultra-high-pressure target. Kosmos has an exten- fossil-based energy sources to reduce energy-related carbon sive inventory they are actively drilling, he adds, although a dioxide emissions.

couple have been dry. “There’s a question around a 25- or 30-year investment

Turner says it will be “an interesting race” to see whether around an oil project and what does oil demand look like in

Anchor or LLOG’s ultra high-pressure Shenandoah project 20 to 30 years. It’s long-term uncertainty,” Turner says. “We’re will reach ?rst oil. not sure about the speed at which the energy transition might “Operators are pursuing high pressure high temperature come and how fast this technology is going to be available. If (HPHT) technology in their efforts to reach more challenging I go and invest in a 25- or 30-year oil investment, how quickly reservoirs in the Gulf,” Herbst says. “Although we could see will I be left holding assets that aren’t worth the investment?

HPHT production in 2023/2024, the timeline for the devel- That timeframe is where the uncertainty is.” opment of HPHT projects is subject to appropriate technol- And that overall uncertainty can make it dif?cult for opera- ogy being available.” tors to attract investments.

In 2019, BSEE released its guidance on HPHT projects in “Companies like Talos and LLOG would like to make the Gulf of Mexico, which allows for “safer and more envi- meaningful transactions that would meaningfully change ronmentally sustainable access to those larger reserves of hy- their portfolio, but it’s difficult to get that capital,” Turn- drocarbons being discovered in deepwater,” he says. BSEE is er says. “carefully evaluating drilling and other permits that require Further, investors are more tightly scrutinizing onshore

HPHT equipment.” shale plays, and there’s the chance that investors may make 12 OFFSHORE ENGINEER OEDIGITAL.COM