Page 18: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Jul/Aug 2021)

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MARKETS U.S. OFFSHORE WIND he U.S. offshore wind sector is rapidly accelerating farms in the Atlantic – however, our forecast also includes one after years of false starts. At least 40 offshore wind Great Lakes demonstrator and four foating wind pilots, two projects are forecast to be developed within this de- on the Atlantic Coast and two offshore California.

T cade. Ports, fabricators, component manufacturers, In the mid-term, there is a further 9GW of Atlantic OCS vessel operators, engineering frms and lenders will beneft projects in early development. WER anticipates an FID on from the $135.8B CAPEX, $4.2B annual OPEX, and $18.4B these projects in 18-36 months.

DECEX opportunity. Longer-term, the balance 7GW of existing Atlantic off-

Despite being the second largest global market for onshore shore wind capacity is forecast to reach FID in 36-60 months.

wind, the U.S. is today a minor player in offshore wind in Close to 12GW of FIDs will be made towards the end of comparison to the European and Asian offshore wind mar- this decade, coming from at least eight New York Bight bot- kets. Two operational projects for a total 42MW of installed tom-fxed projects and multiple foating wind projects com- capacity were installed in the U.S. at the end of 2020 versus a ing from the future Morro Bay 399 and Humboldt leasing global offshore installed base of 32GW. activity. These projects will mainly see offshore construction

The year 2021 will deliver a step change in offshore wind in the early 2030’s.

activity in the U.S. as the journey accelerates to develop the 40.8GW project pipeline. A $135.8B CAPEX AND ANNUAL

These are the fndings shared in a recent report on the U.S. $4.2B OPPORTUNITY offshore wind market in this decade by World Energy Re- WER’s bottom-up forecast model breaks the $135.8B of ports (WER). CAPEX into component spend, forecasting close to $100B

The 80-page report examines the business conditions likely to be spent on material supply, manufacturing and/or fab- to drive offshore wind project development in the U.S. within rication of turbines, cables, foundation structures and other this decade, forecasts the number, CAPEX, OPEX and timing equipment.

of projects, and provides a roadmap to accessing these market WER anticipates around $22B will be spent on installa- opportunities. tion and commissioning activities. The Jones Act supports

U.S. built, owned and operated vessels. This means that

DEVELOPMENTS IN US OFFSHORE WIND foreign fag installation vessels will not be able to shuttle

WER’s forecast represents a much higher level of activity components from U.S. ports to the construction site, as is than was anticipated six months ago. the practice in the developed European and East Asian mar-

Since April 2021, the White House has set a development kets. There is limited Jones Act compliant turbine, founda- target of 30GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 110GW by tion, and cable installation capacity. This can lead to project 2050, a major project in federal waters has been approved for delays or increased costs as developers compete for scarce construction (Vineyard 1), six projects in federal waters are foreign fag tonnage and comparatively high-priced Jones under fnal review, 2.6GW of project capacity has secured Act new buildings, or select less effcient/cost competitive state procurements and 11.6GW of new federal leasing activ- combinations of foreign fag installation vessels and domes- ity in the northeast and California is underway. tic feeder vessels.

Final investment decisions are expected for 19 projects over As with offshore oil and gas projects, a signifcant amount the next 18 months. Most of the projects will be larger wind of lifetime project cost in an offshore windfarm is represented farms in the federal waters of the northeast and Mid-Atlan- by routine planned operations and maintenance. For an off- tic. The forecast also includes a demonstration project in the shore windfarm this is typically 40-45% of the lifetime cost.

Great Lakes and four foating wind demonstration projects – WER’s forecast identifes around $4.2B of annual recurring two each in the Atlantic and the Pacifc. OPEX once the identifed projects are commissioned.

Wind farm operators will set routine inspection and mainte-

A 40.6MW PROJECT FORECAST nance schedules, chartering in long-term vessel support for the

As of March 2021, there are 44 projects in planning. Close activities. The tonnage will be mostly Jones Act Vessels. Cer- to 1GW of projects have been approved and a fnal invest- tain vessel categories can be modifed/redeployed for the exist- ment decision is imminent. An additional 13.7GW of capac- ing Jones Act feet. Other requirements call for new buildings.

ity is forecast to reach FID within the next 18 months. This Details off all the projects in the forecast are provided in capacity is mainly made up of bottom-fxed offshore wind the report.

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