Page 22: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Nov/Dec 2024)

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MARKETS OFFSHORE SERVICE VESSELS

Offshore Service Vessels:

What’s in Store in 2025

Afer what we would argue has been an incredibly eventful 2024 with massive deals, tremendous dayrate developments, further charterer backlog build, and the frst series of newbuild orders in years, now comes the time when we turn our gaze towards 2025. What are some of the main trends we expect for next year, and how do we see the continuation of today's developments impact the year to come. Overall, we fnd continued strides for the better in the ofshore support market although we foresee an industry that will not fre on all cylinders, at least not quite yet.

By Jesper Skjong, Market Analyst, Fearnley Offshore Supply AS

Te World By Region

From a global perspective, we forecast the overall de- Political sentiment in the UK ushered in by the new gov- mand for OSVs will continue to increase in 2025, con- ernment in the UK hit the market like a hammer earlier tinuing the clear trend since the market trough in 2017 this year, and the impact on the local market therein will less the impact of COVID in 2020 and 2021. Yet again beyond likely continue to shape the trajectory in 2025. De- do we fnd vessel demand at its highest level since the spite representing a relatively modest O&G production, the previous peak 10 years earlier as demand derived from UK is by far one of the biggest OSV markets in Northwest oil & gas activities are estimated to grow by almost 4% Europe, and as such it will have a signifcantly negative effect on top of a relatively strong 2024. Furthermore, when on the entire region. As we are writing this, vessels have re- applying a broad defnition of offshore support and in- cently been fxed for less than GBP 5,000 per day, not even cluding the vessel demand derived from the offshore covering operational expenditure. Granted, the challenging wind industry, 2025 is set for the highest vessel activity weather patterns of the winter months certainly have a lot to level ever! do with that, but even so we fnd that the weakened market

That having been said, this is not equally true for all re- fundamentals playing a critical role here as well. gions. While the usual suspects of the golden triangle and Similarly, postponements and failure to approve new the Middle East are forecasted to see their respective OSV projects has seen major developments offshore Malaysia segments continue to higher demand levels next year, we come to a halt. As the defnitive largest country for OSV note weaker project development in key countries in both demand in the Southeast Asian region, this too is likely to

Northwest Europe and Southeast Asia, as well as rig activ- put a dent in the sentiment for local Shipowners. When the ity in Australia is expected to develop fat in 2025. Thus, Sabah government will make up its mind is anyone’s guess, while positive in general, it is a bit of a mixed bag when and while we wait, we understand that several contenders looking at the different key regions. are now tendering for the fourth(!) time on the same project.

Elsewhere, however, the market is charging on with con- tinued growth in OSV demand in 2025. In Brazil, Petro- 22 OFFSHORE ENGINEER OEDIGITAL.COM