Page 25: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Mar/Apr 2026)

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MARKETS WIND TURBINE INSTALLATION VESSELS by Australia and the Philippines. In North America (NAM)

Atlantic Canada is looking to fll some of the hole left by the withdrawal of the USA from offshore wind, South America (SAM) is moving through the gears to establish offshore wind

WIND TURBINE markets, and India (ISC) may soon turn plans into auctions.

This ever-changing market has an impact on the wind turbine and foundation installation market, where invest- ment decisions for the latest generation vessels were gener- ally made in more stable and promising times. As a result,

INSTALLATION VESSELS utilization could be challenging, impacting day rates and fnancial returns.

These are some of the fndings from a new bottom-up analysis and report by Intelatus Global Partners of the bot- tom-fxed turbine and foundation installation and mainte- nance market.

Changing demand has impacted the wind turbine and foundation installation supply & demand balance, re- sulting in tight to over-supply during the forecast period.

The global offshore wind forecast (excl. China) has “moved to the right” over the last year or so due to can- celled projects, disappointing auctions, cost increases and political headwinds.

The 2035 commissioned capacity forecast is ~230GW, of which over 90% features bottom-fxed technology. Europe ac- counts for over 70% of capacity additions and EAPAC 20%.

In NAM, the project pipeline has been severely impacted by the current federal administration’s campaign against offshore wind projects and Canada looks to make a market entry in he last two or three years have seen a change in the next decade. Other new demand is forecast to emerge in the underlying stakeholder support for the energy SAM and ISC towards the middle of the next decade.

transition, resulting in the energy trilemma being The 2035 forecast is ~17,900 commissioned turbines. focused more on energy security and affordability Over 70% of turbines commissioned in 2025-2035 are

T than transition, which means a pivot away from renew- forecast to be bottom-fxed. Europe accounts for ~70% of ables to increased support for oil & gas. At the same time, capacity additions and EAPAC ~20%. Forecast sensitivi- infation and interest rates have impacted project econom- ties include the speed of adoption of larger turbines and ics. Needless to say, these factors have impacted the global the speed of project capacity development.

offshore wind forecast and the supply and demand bal- The specialist FFIV segment (=DP2 crane vessel with ance for wind turbine installation and major component deck to carry several monopiles or jackets) excl. China will exchange (MCE) and foundation installation. grow from 8 vessels to 9 by 2028 and is insuffcient to

It is not all bad news. The UK and North Seas European meet global demand (excl. China) throughout the forecast. countries are planning to increase offshore wind capacity (to Foundation vessel supply remains tight over several increase energy security and affordability through scale) and years of the forecast period when adding in foundation advance grid integration (to manage localized offshore wind support from WTIVs. The FFIV and WTIV feet is sup- farm intermittency and stabilize the grid). Poland is advanc- ported by 5 HLCVs and 4 HLSSs (=DP2 crane vessel with ing its offshore wind agenda. Mediterranean countries will a smaller or no monopile carrying capacity, often fed by enter the market. The big three EAPAC players (Japan, South barges, and also working in the oil & gas sector). Most can

Korea and Taiwan) will continue to advance offshore wind install XXXL monopiles and large jackets. At a granular auctions and capacity development and will soon be joined level, the European FFIV and WTIV supply will struggle

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