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to meet all European foundation demand in the forecast • Speed of adoption of larger turbines. The two lead- period and requires HLCV and HLSS support. EAPAC is ing western OEMs are currently focusing on turbines of largely oversupplied with FFIVs throughout the forecast =15MW, although Siemens is reported to be discussing period, and both NAM and other markets are undersup- commercializing its 20MW+ model for projects under plied throughout the forecast period. construction in the next decade. Several Chinese OEMs

As bottom-fxed turbine and foundation sizes are forecast are developing 16-25MW offshore turbines and a couple to continue to increase, available WTIV supply (excl. Chi- of discussing factories in the UK and Europe.

na) capable of installing =15MW turbines is growing from • Acceptance of Chinese OEMs and scale of entry of none in 2020 to over 25 by 2028, made up of new genera- Chinese installation and maintenance vessels to global tion high-spec vessels, designed to service larger wind farms the market. Chinese foundations, subsea cables and, to a built further offshore, and upgrades of earlier generation lesser extent, turbines already feature in the European and vessels. Supply is forecast to be able to meet global demand EAPAC markets. Wide scale adoption of Chines turbines (excl. China) through the forecast period, although Europe including planned European factories is still subject to sig- is forecast to see tight supply in the =15MW segment from nifcant political debate.

2032 and from 2030 for other markets. EAPAC and NAM • Cabotage/preference to build & operate domestic ves- are oversupplied through the forecast. sels, particularly in EAPAC and NAM.

The bottom-fxed WTMV feet, both early generation • Vessel productivity through technical capabilities of

WTIVs and oil & gas maintenance and intervention jack- older/smaller vessels and newer/more capable vessels. New ups, is forecast to stand at ~40 by end 2026 and is largely generation vessels achieve productivity of up to more than suffcient to meet major component exchange (MCE) re- 40% compared to upgraded earlier generation vessels.

quiring a jack-up intervention, subject to activity in the oil • Changing economic returns (infation, exchange & gas market. rates, etc.).

There are many sensitivities to the forecast, which can • Changing political support for offshore wind, as seen both increase and reduce vessel oversupply. in the USA but it also witnessed in several other offshore

There are many sensitives impacting the forecast, in- wind markets.

cluding: • Oil & gas demand for WTMVs, HLCVs and HLSSs • Timing and amounts of auctions of currently active for construction, intervention and maintenance.

markets and new players. For example, Germany has re- • Timing of industrialization of foating wind, which has cently delayed its 2026 auction to 2027. generally moved further into the 2030s.

• Grid connection availability. • Black swans.

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