
Page 34: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (November 1983)
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OFFSHORE
RESURGENCE BEGINS
By Hugh J. Kelly
President and Chief Executive Officer
Ocean Drilling & Exploration Company
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Last March
at a meeting of financial analysts
in New Orleans, Hugh J. Kelly,
president and chief executive officer
of Ocean Drilling & Exploration
Company (ODECO), forecast a
turnaround for the offshore drill-
ing industry by early 1984 as the
result of the Department of the In-
terior's open lease sales scheduled
for the Gulf of Mexico in May, Au-
gust and November of this year. He
predicted 1,000 new leases in the
Gulf of Mexico in drillable water
depths by year-end. "Maritime Re-
porter/Engineering News" pub-
lished Mr. Kelly's predictions in
the June 1 Annual Yearbook Issue.
In the following article. Mr. Kelly
reports on the lease sale results to
date and sees signs of a resurgence
in offshore drilling.)
Our recent analysis of the rig
market would indicate that we
have, at last, reached the bottom
of what has been the worst down-
turn in the history of the business.
In mid-September, the Gulf of
Mexico has 92 out of 213 rigs idle,
for a utilization rate of 52 percent,
and there are 92 out of 427 rigs
idle in foreign areas, for a 78 per-
cent utilization rate, or a world-
wide rate of 71 percent; i.e. there
are 184 rigs stacked out of 640.
For several weeks now, the utili-
zation rate has shown only a tiny
improvement; nevertheless, it is
the first time that has occurred in
over 18 months. There are other
signs—the customers are going
out to bid on term contracts in the
Gulf and foreign areas, and the in-
quiries have increased. It's noth-
ing like a deluge of customer de-
mand for rigs, and what I'm trying
to do here is to claim I've seen the
first birds flying south for the win-
ter. The fundamentals are all good.
We've now had the second record-
breaking lease sale in the Gulf of
Mexico, offshore Texas, and have
over 1,000 new leases for drilling.
Incidentally, ODECO has 44 of
those leases and actually ranked
10th of some 26 companies that
participated in those sales in num-
ber of tracts acquired.
I'd characterize the rig market
like a man who is lying battered,
bruised, bloody, flat on his back,
but seriously contemplating roll-
ing over and getting up on one
knee. Obviously we have a long
way to go before our business once
again becomes profitable.
In addition to the big sales we
have had here in the Gulf, the
price of oil continues to remain
firm and, indeed, has improved
some, and the consensus on the
gas surplus is that it will soon be
gone. Indeed, we have evidence of
this.
No need to go out and break
open the champagne, though, be-
cause we face the rest of this year
and next year in putting back to
work all those 184 idle rigs. In Au-
gust, we had the offshore Texas
lease sale, and there were no dis-
appointments there. This sale,
which covered offshore Texas, had
773 bids. There were 436 high
bids, 28 bids rejected with awards
on 408 tracts. In total, for the May
Louisiana and August Texas sales,
there were 1,092 high bids on
tracts and 1,031 leases awarded.
Of that amount, 61 were rejected,
or about 5.5 percent rate of rejec-
tion, even though over 60 percent
of the bids submitted were single
bids.
There are many new exciting
plays underway, but clearly the oil
play going on in the deeper waters,
known as the "flexure trend," will
be very important. Oil has been
discovered in that trend, and com-
panies are already drilling leases
awarded at the May sale. All of
this offers exciting possibilities for
the immediate future. This has oc-
curred because of Department of
the Interior's policy of the "open
lease sale," which permits the in-
dustry, rather than the govern-
ment, to select areas it believes
have potential for oil and gas.
While this is good for the industry
in providing opportunities for find-
ing oil and gas and putting people
back to work, it offers the country
the first real opportunity of mak-
ing a national assessment of its oil
and gas reserves.
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