Page 11: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (December 1989)

EXISTING FLEET—TANKERS AND COMBINED CARRIERS

Size tdw

Year of Build (number of vessels and thousand tons deadweight)

TOTAL Up to 1969 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 10/ 15,999 16/ 24,999 25/ 34,999 35/ 44,999 45/ 59,999 60/ 79,999 80/ 89,999 90/119,999 120/159,999 160/199,999 200/254,999 255/319,999 320,000/ & over 52 648 159 3,247 73 2,191 46 1,763 46 2,366 47 3,338 14 1,178 28 2,915 3 420 1 176 1 207 46 642 85 1,820 125 3,671 32 1,186 9 452 40 2,958 32 2,722 60 6,277 86 11,786 13 2,183 84 19,695 80 21,650 3 1,018 50 663 74 1,501 169 5,108 77 2,925 42 2,337 31 2,238 72 6,158 67 6,840 157 21,267 25 4,343 52 12,267 104 28,738 51 20,281 56 687 97 1,903 98 2,951 97 3,804 87 4,721 120 8,417 42 3,589 25 2,585 15 2,054 4 705 3 710 5 1,436 2 710 44 577 41 760 55 1,599 87 3,472 31 1,581 41 2,957 45 3,789 33 3,323 20 2,788 1 161 29 7,017 7 2,074 248 3,217 456 9,231 520 15,520 339 13,150 215 11,457 279 19,908 205 17,436 213 21,940 281 38,315 44 7,568 169 39,896 196 53,898 56 22,009

TOTAL 470 18,449 695 76,060 971 114,666 651 34,272 434 30,098 3,221 273,545 % t.d.w. of steam vessels % t.d.w. of motor vessels 33.4 66.6 48.6 51.4 50.0 50.0 4.3 95.7 1.0 99.0 36.9 63.1

Source: Clarkson Research Studies Ltd.

As a result there has been a rise in secondhand prices for bulk carriers.

For example, a 15-year—old 120,000-dwt bulker would currently bring offers of around $22 million.

Twelve months ago offers would be about $17 million—and five years ago a price of $7 million would be within reach.

Shipowners over the past several years gave been placing new ship orders at the rate of 20 million dwt annually. By late 1988, the world orderbook stood at 37 million dwt.

This is a far cry from the early 1970s—when new orders were run- ning 120 million dwt annually and order backlog had swollen to 240 million dwt.

The increase in freight rates has not yet fully reflected itself in ship- building orders. Mostly the impact has been reducing inactive tonnage and raising secondhand prices.

This is about to end—and, in fact, probably has already ended.

Driving future shipbuilding de- mand is the increasing age of exist- ing ships. By the mid-1990s, 42 per- cent of ships in the world tanker fleet will be 20 years or older.

Almost 60 percent of the OBO fleet and 37 percent of world bulk car- riers will be 20 years or older. While some life extension is possible—and many owners are studying extension possibilities—a ship's economic and physical life starts to close quickly at 20 years of age. To meet this replacement timing, orders have to be placed now through the early to mid-1990s.

This replacement requirement— combined with improved shipping demand—will produce a massive fu- ture shipbuilding requirement. In fact, a number of major yards are already reported to be committed well into 1992. Quite likely there are speculators now placing ship orders for which they have no intention of taking delivery. Rather, they expect to gain by selling their building berth spaces to anxious buyers— much like speculators in the mid- 1980s who bought laid-up tankers for subsequent resale when market conditions improved. (continued)

DRY BULK CARRIER TONNAGE DELIVERED AND ON ORDER 1983 1984 1985 1986

I I Bulk & Ore Delivered

Bulk & Ore on Order 1987 1988

Combos Delivered

Combos on Order

OIL CARRIER TONNAGE DELIVERED AND ON ORDER 1982 1983 1

I.I Tankers Delivered

Tankers on Order 1989 1990 1991 1992

Combos Delivered

Combos on Order 2% DIA. •2 7/32 DIA.- |^-2.00 DIA.-^| 21/4- 12UN-3A

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December, 1989

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