Page 76: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (February 1998)

NAVAL TECHNOLOGY

New Study Projects $160 Billion Naval Market

In a new study entitled Littoral

Warfare: An Emerging Market for

Ships & Systems, Stuart Slade of market research and publishing firm Forecast International pro- jects that over the next decade, more than $160 billion will be spent worldwide on warships and their equipment as a result of the shifting worldwide emphasis from deep ocean to coastal and shallow water operations. This look at the likely structure of naval expendi- tures over the next decade brings together the operational, technical and financial implications of lit- toral warfare.

The study states that littoral regions have become extremely complex, multi-dimensional, threatening environments that

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CONTACT

CMA Conference Coordinator, International Marketing Strategies, Inc. 28 Southfield Avenue, Stamford, CT 06902 USA

Phone: 203.406.0109 Fax: 203.406.0110 Email: [email protected] present entirely new tactical chal- lenges to naval forces. Littoral mission profiles now extend far beyond combat operations to include maritime policing and even humanitarian tasks. The result is a key paradigm shift in naval doc- trine that has implications for maritime forces in every size cate- gory. This extends beyond navies to include coast guard services, land-based maritime aircraft units and coastal defense forces.

Surprisingly, the latter is projected as becoming increasingly impor- tant, and much attention is devot- ed to the often neglected market offered by coastal defense weapons and systems.

Key to the study is a mathemati- cal model that allows procurement programs to be broken down into expenditures on key areas such as hulls and machinery, weapons, radars, sonars, electronic warfare equipment and C4I systems. The analysis shows that littoral war- fare is essentially a C4I problem, and that more than a quarter of the total expenditures will be devoted to improvements in this sector. The study also found that dramatic advances in civilian sec- tor computer technology have strongly impacted the design of naval C4I systems, bringing the procurement of very capable sys- tems within reach of even the smallest naval powers. The limi- tations of technological develop- ments, such as air-independent propulsion for submarines and reduced signature "stealth" tech- niques for ships and aircraft, are explored, as well as the benefits they may confer. Some prevalent myths, such as the suggestion that smaller warships are somehow "the way of the future," are contra- dicted by detailed assessments of building programs and ship con- struction economics.

Stuart L. Slade is the author of numerous articles on naval and defense subjects, with works widely published in industry journals such as Naval Forces, Navint,

International Defense Review and

Armed Forces. He has also been a contributor to a number of books on naval subjects, including Navies of the Nuclear Age and the forthcom- ing Navies of The 21st Century and Future Naval Aviation. Mr.

Slade is presently senior defense analyst with Forecast

International /DMS, in Newtown,

Conn. 72 Circle 215 on Reader Service Card Maritime Reporter/Engineering News