Page 11: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (September 1998)

omy since 1997. As a consequence, the Japanese economy is expected to recover and maintain the same level of economic growth rate as the U.S. and Europe. On the whole, economic growth in devel- aped countries is estimated to be slightly over two percent after

L998.

Meanwhile, in developing coun- tries, the picture is a bit less clear.

The Asian economy, which had >een characterized by strong con- inual growth, is now deeply lepressed for a number of econom- c factors which came to a head in he autumn of 1997. It is antici- >ated, however, that Asia will ight itself and again start on the ast track of industrial and eco- tomic development. It is, however, mpossible to accurately predict

IOW or when this will take place, esulting in the split scenario stip- ilated by ASIS in its report.

Looking at other developing ountries, the Chinese economic rowth rate in 1997 was at a lightly lower level compared with revious years, but high growth fas nonetheless achieved. China dll — despite a possible stall from vents in S.E. Asia — likely main- lin its current high economic rowth rate in the medium and ing term. The economy of the for- ter USSR looks to be gradually 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Fleet Demand (bulk carriers) 1997 2010 improving, while Eastern

European countries have also shown business expansion and eco- nomic improvement.

Trade Patterns

Predictably, the Asian financial crisis, which had been and was expected to continue driving the largest percentage increases of seaborne oil trade, has had a slightly negative effect on near- term prospects. Seaborne oil trade in 1997 showed a high increase rate of four percent because of the steady rise in oil consumption worldwide, and the slowdown in the expansion of short-haul trade due to a fall in the growth rate of oil production in Europe.

In 1998, as oil consumption in

Asian countries will stagnate and short-haul oil trade will expand owing to the rise in oil production

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