Page 17: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (September 2000)

Germany/SMM

Market Forces And Technology Will Shape The Futre Of Shipping

We are living in a time of vigorous world growth and the liberalization and globalization of world trade, and no industry will be more central to this process than shipping. As in the past, our industry will be driven by the requirements of the market and by advancing technology, and over the next decade we can expect evolutions in the development of all types of ships.

This is also a time of transition from prescriptive rules and regulations to the creation of an industry wide safety cul- ture based on self-regulation and self- responsibility, and the classification societies will be at the heart of this.

What sort of technical advances can we expect to see in the main types of ships throughout the next 10 years or so, and what will be the problems and risks involved?

Containershipping

The most dynamic development will continue to be in the field of container ships. Today the world fleet of 2,600 fully cellular ships of 53 million-gt accounts for nearly 10 percent of world merchant ship tonnage. Some five years ago this was only 5 percent. Now rough- ly 70 percent of general cargo is con- tainerized, and it is expected that this will grow to more than 90 percent by 2010.

The economies of scale are highly rel- evant to this ship type, and that is why we will see increasingly larger ocean carriers and feeder ships. Panamax ships of more than 4,800-teu are already in service, and there will be innovations to increase the capacity of these ships to more than 5,000-teu, such as 12 abreast stowage, a reduction in double bottom height and the quantity of ballast water, and modifications to transverse bulk- head configurations.

Propulsion Power

Soon we will see the introduction of

Post-Panamax megaships of 8,0000-teu or even larger. Indeed, a stretched Maer- sk K-class vessel can already carry more than 7,000-teu. A comprehensive design project by a German consortium, showed that it is possible to cope with the structural problems of the 8,000-teu ship and beyond. Limitations on the development of mega containerships are more likely to arise from the capability of port cargo handling facilities and inadequate depth of water, along with the maximum available size of propul- sion plants. The largest slow speed diesel engines currently available with a maximum output of 68,000 kW (95,000- bhp) provide adequate propulsive power for a Post-Panamax ship of 8,000-teu for a speed of up to approximately 25 knots.

Some earlier considerations for even larger engines of 14 or 16 cylinders, possibly using a V-arrangement for the cylinders in order to reduce length, have been reactivated by engine manufactur- ers. Two engine plants would have to be installed for even larger and faster ships.

However, once we decide on a twin by Dr. Hans G. Payer, member of the executive board of Germanischer Lloyd and immediate past chair of IACS.

CO 50 Years ...

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Circle 270 on Reader Service Card

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September, 2000 17