Page 21: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (January 2002)

Investment in Design ; by David Tinsley

Entry of the Titans Delayed

After consistent annual growth of between seven and nine percent, the global containership market is experi- encing severe conditions, with the collapse in charter rates and continuing, extensive capacity additions to the fleet at a time of stagnation in the world economy.

The international trade downturn, exacerbated by the broader economic impact of the terrorist outrages in the U.S., has resulted in the deferment of contracts for the much-vaunted, proposed new generation of line- haul vessels over 8,000-TEU capacity. The events in the liner sector underscore shipping's propensity for extreme market conditions, over-and-above the cycli- cal patterns that have traditionally been experienced in the bulker and tanker fields. That very fact points to recovery in due course, albeit after the current period has exacted a heavy toll on operators and the related industries.

Dr. Hans G. Payer, one of the industry's most cir- cumspect as well as erudite representatives, has expressed confidence in the long-term growth

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Dr. Hans G. Payer prospects for the liner business, and in the ultimate scope for newbuildings offering more than 8,000-TEU slots. In his capacity as executive board member of

Germanischer Lloyd, he told a recent London gather- ing that "There will again be a doubling of container volume to be shipped by the year 2010," and pointed to the tempting economies of scale embodied in a future breed of cellular ships outstripping currently operated tonnage. "The continuing investment in hub ports to handle vessels of this size and beyond testifies to the preparedness of ports in most parts of the world to accommodate them," noted Dr. Payer, adding "They are an inevitable compo- nent in the further development of the container transportation industry "

Although the 'stretched' Maersk S- type ships and Hapag-Lloyd's recently commissioned, 7,500-TEU Hamburg

Express have already taken the industry close to the 8,000-TEU category, there had been earlier expectations that ships of 9,000-TEU and larger would be ordered in 2001.

Dr. Payer criticized certain of the mega-container ship design studies undertaken by various organizations on the strength of earlier market interest as being "superficial and technically inad- equate". He felt they did not compare in depth and thoroughness with the six- year German maritime industry research study, project-managed by GL, into the feasibility of an 8,000-TEU container- ship, including detailed design consid- 18 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News

Big containerships such as the Samsung-built 6,400 TEU NYK Lodestar may embody the latest in technological prowess, but their acceptance has been momentarily stunted due to an ailing world economy and a precipitous drop in demand.