Page 38: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 2004)

2004 World Yearbook

LNG Fleet Needs to Triple by 2020

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World LNG demand is forecast to rise from 158 billion cubic meter (bcm) to 269 bcm by 2010 and to 428.5 bcm by 2020. This growth represents an average annual trade growth of 7.6% over the near-term, with a slowing to 5.4% through to 2015 and 4.9% up to 2020.

Such trade growth will necessitate an increased vessel building program.

Currently there are 59 vessels on order, but to match the expected development of trade volumes an additional 33 ves- sels are required through to 2010, 76 vessels in the period 2010-15 and 83 vessels up to 2020. These are some of the findings of the new report on the

LNG sector, published by Ocean

Shipping Consultants Ltd. The 163-page

World LNG to 2020: Prospects for Trade & Shipping report forecasts that an extra $5 billion of additional newbuild- ing vessel investment is required before 2010 and an additional $24.1 billion through to 2020. Trading patterns are set to change significantly over the next decade as new markets and suppliers emerge, vessel capacities are increased and the spot market grows in promi- nence. A summary of some of the find- ings of this major new study, which analyses in detail the expected develop- ment in all aspects of the world LNG industry, follows.

LNG Trade & Imports to 2020 • Global LNG trade is set to increase by an average approximating 7.6% over the near-term, with a slowing to 5.4% in the second half of the decade. In the final part of the study period, average annual growth is forecast at around 4.9%. • Annual trade is expected to increase from 158 bcm in 2003 to over 269 bcm in 2010, 346 bcm in 2015 and 429 bcm in 2020, this equates to a rise of 70% by 2010 and 172% by 2020. • Of the world trade, East Asian import markets accounted for almost 109 bcm of the 2003 total of 158 bcm. Imports are set to increase to over 139 bcm by 2010 and 181 bcm by 2020. • In early 2004, India became an importer of LNG however there are cur- rently no other Asian LNG markets.

Large-scale imports are set to follow the start up of terminals in Thailand, the

Philippines, Singapore, Myanmar and

New Zealand. By 2010 the annual import total for these markets is forecast at almost 21 bcm, rising to 38 bcm by 2020. • Western European markets imported just over 41 bcm in 2003 and are set to increase volumes to 139 bcm by 2010

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Classification society approvals. 24 hour service (United States) 38 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News