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Ship Repair & Conversion
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January 2006 15 3 I M P L E X # O M P A C T ¤ S L A E 3 - D A E O N L Y I N ' E R M N A Y A 3 L V R E 3 S E R A P 3 S E I O . N I E C R T R E M ! H I A C 3 I P M L X E E M ! R I S A C # , , N O L Y I N F S O I P M L E M A X E R I S A C O C M
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Scientists and health care experts are warning of the inevitability of an avian flu pandemic. Governments are starting to listen and take halting steps to address this perceived problem. The challenge for the maritime industry is determining likely impacts and initiating measures now to counter or mitigate those impacts.
What is it?
Influenza viruses are quite common, particularly in birds and to a lesser extent other animals such as pigs.
Humans who come into contact with these infected animals may acquire one or more of the viruses inhabiting the ani- mals. Most influenza viruses present minimal health risks to humans, as most of us have been exposed to them previ- ously and have acquired some limited degree of immunity. For most people, the flu causes congestion, fever, and body aches for a few days and then goes away - sort of like a bad cold. For some people, though, particularly those with impaired immune systems, the common flu can result in severe health problems and possibly death. Flu vaccinations generally provide immunity, if the phar- maceutical industry can correctly antici- pate the flu strain before it becomes wide-spread and design the vaccine to counter that strain.
Problems arise due to the ability of the influenza virus to mutate rapidly. As a result, a particular vaccine may be only partially successful in providing immu- nity. If the mutation is great or unantic- ipated, the vaccine may largely fail to protect humans.
In the past few years, scientists have detected a significant mutation in the influenza virus in some birds. This new virus is officially referred to as H5N1, but is commonly called the avian flu. It was first found in domesticated birds being raised in China and southeast
Asia. It has since been found in wild and migrating birds throughout Asia and in Europe. It is only a matter of time before the virus will have spread world- wide. Because the avian flu is signifi- cantly different from previous influenza viruses, humans have no immunity. The mortality rate for humans known to have been infected with the avian flu is quite high - over 50%.
Fortunately, in its current form, the
H5N1 virus lacks the ability to infect one human from another human. Thus, almost all cases known to date involve persons who worked in close contact with birds on a daily basis. The concern is that eventually the avian flu will mutate again and acquire the ability to move easily (i.e., through airborne fluids such as in a sneeze) from one person to another. When that occurs, the stage is set for the human version of avian flu to move rapidly around the entire world, temporarily incapacitating a large per- centage of the populace and resulting in the deaths of millions (It is estimated that 40 million people worldwide died during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic).
What are the likely impacts for the maritime industry?
The major impact of an avian flu pan- demic for the international maritime industry will be delays and diversions on a large scale. For a period of time (perhaps six months), commercial activ- ity will operate at a fraction of the level immediately preceding the outbreak.
Ship owners and operators with long- term contracts will be unable to fully perform or will find that their commer- cial partners will be unable to perform.
The labor pool, both for sea-going jobs and maritime positions ashore - such as longshoremen - will be seriously deplet- ed as employees become too ill to work or have to stay home to attend to ill fam- ily members. The labor pool for the jobs that manufacture goods for eventual shipment and the consumers who might purchase those goods will face similar impacts.
President Bush recently asked
Congress to appropriate billions of dol- lars to initiate the process of preparing the United States to deal with this threat.
He also promulgated the National
Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. The strategy outlines how the federal gov- ernment intends to prepare, detect, and respond to a pandemic. It also outlines the roles envisioned for state and local governments, the international commu- nity, and the private sector. The pillars of the national strategy are: (1) pre- paredness and communication; (2) sur- veillance and detection: and (3) response and containment. Surveillance and detection will involve, among other things, increased reporting and record- keeping from arriving ships and aircraft.
The U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS) has issued a
Pandemic Influenza Plan providing more details to supplement the National
Strategy. (The UK Health Protection
Agency issued a similar Influenza
Pandemic Contingency Plan in
October.) The Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued proposed rules that would modify and strengthen current quarantine regu-
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Preparing for the Avian Flu Pandemic
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