Page 10: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (April 2011)

10 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News

NEWS POSTS FROM MARITIMEPROFESSIONAL.COM

With trade on the rebound through West

Coast ports, excitement and over-hype of the previous years has thankfully given way to clear-headed assessment of the fu- ture. That became clear at Long Beach's

Pulse of the Ports annual forecast break- fast recently

Not that the experts giving the lowdown on what's happening can be accused of

PR exaggeration. Their opinions have mostly always been based on fact, but were lost in the froth of Great Expecta- tions.

Leading off the assessment was Daniel

Smith of TIOGA consultants, who re- minded the industry that the Panama

Canal's tolls are based on TEU capacity, which means that carriers will focus even more closely on utilization after 2014. "The volume needed to support tripling capacity from 4,000 TEU vessels to 12,000 TEU [maximum vessel size of the widened canal] is unlikely to emerge be- fore 2020," he said.

Smith reckons that while West Coast vs. East Coast shares of trade are likely to stay much the same, there has been a shift within the Western Seaboard, with

Lazaro Cardenas, Prince Rupert and Van- couver (Canada) getting more traffic. "All-water routes will gain share, but there will be no stampede," he says. "The shift to the East or Gulf Coast is likely to be small and gradual," while "East and Gulf Coast ports can handle near-term growth, but must address long- term draft and capacity challenges," and "West Coast ports and railroads are also moving to reinforce their competitive po- sition. "Railroads will not willingly surrender market share to the Panama Canal. The business the railroads have now is the business they want, and they will fight to keep it. Intermodal container traffic is now solidly profitable, and can compete with coal for investment dollars."

The forecast for LA/Long Beach is a total of 35 million TEU by 2030, com- pared with 65 million made in a fore- cast three years ago. Capacity of the two ports will stay at 45 million TEU.

Export volumes are predicted to reach 3.5 million TEU in 2015, out of a total of about 16 million TEU. The obvious con- clusion to be drawn is that imports will continue their relentless march; making

Empties an increasingly important part of total volume.

Of more immediate interest, Daniel

Smith says the third quarter this year at

LA/Long Beach will be up 5 percent on last year and the fourth quarter will be up 14 percent (relying on Port Tracker for that assessment).

Posted by Martin Rushmere —

West Coast U.S.

West Coast Should See Steady Traffic Rise to 2030

The Balance of Power will stay the same between the two coasts.