Page 16: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (February 2015)

OFFSHORE UPDATE

Floater Orders 2014 25 Units Orders in 2014: 10 FPSOs, 1 Barge, 4 FLNGs, 7 FSRUs & 3 FSOs

BY JIM MCCAUL he overall number of orders is • Hilli (Keppel/B&V) over the past few months. The futures the January IMA/World Energy Report. similar to the average order- • Exmar LNG Barge (Wison) market, for example, is pricing crude But the pressure on reducing project

Ting pace over the past 10 years, • Gimi (Keppel/B&V) three years out at $20 more that the cur- cost will be intense over the next year during which an average of roughly 25 rent spot price. at all levels of the ? oater supply chain production and storage ? oaters were or- FSRUs (7) The longer term outlook is what ENI – and, as workload slows, the balance in dered annually. • K Godavari Regas Barge (Wison) took into account when in late January negotiating power in EPC contracts will

But the ordering pace by type unit is • Exmar Regas Barge (Wison) it sanctioned start of the $6 billion proj- tilt in favor of ? eld operators. This will quite different. FPSO orders in 2014 • Hoegh Gallant (Hoegh) ect to develop the Sankofa oil/gas ? eld force suppliers to be more ? exible in were 25% below the 13.5 average order- • Moheshkhali Island (Excelerate) offshore Ghana. This produced the ? rst pricing, cause pro? t margins to fall and ing pace over the past ten years – and in • Jebal Ali #2 (Excelerate) FPSO order in 2015. require expenses to be trimmed wher- 2014 no orders were placed for Spars, • Hoegh Cartagena (Hoegh) Demand and supply fundamentals ever possible.

TLPs or Production Semis, which be- • Hoegh Speculative (Hoegh) have not really changed. What we have tween 2004 and 2013 averaged 3.5 or- is a short term out-of-balance in supply ders per year. Impact of $45 oil and the and demand. This will self-correct. The

Offsetting these declines were gains Petrobras Investigation question is when (not whether) prices in orders for FLNGs and FSRUs. Be- The huge drop in oil/gas prices and will rebound to a higher level.

World Energy Reports tween 2004 and 2013 the ordering pace ongoing ? nancial investigation in Petro- As for Petrobras, the company will & Database for LNG liquefaction and regasi? ca- bras have combined to create a perfect sooner or later resolve its ? nancial and tion units averaged three units per year. storm in the deepwater sector. Oil com- contracting issues. Petrobras is a pow-

WER provides a business intelli-

The number of ordered placed in 2014 pany capital budgets are being trimmed erful company with 14 billion barrels of gence service in the ? oating produc- for these type units was more than three to offset the downturn in revenue and proved oil reserves. It is a technology tion sector. Each month WER pub- times this average. investment decisions are being deferred leader in the deepwater sector. The is- lishes Floating Production Systems

Orders placed during the year are until oil pricing rebounds – and the in- sues that caused the implosion will be – Projects in the Planning Stage, shown below. The unit EPC contractor/ vestigation involving Petrobras is im- resolved and the company will get back

Units on Order, Installed Systems lessor is in parentheses. pacting its ability to order new produc- to focusing on its business plan to grow and Available Units, an on-line 85 tion ? oaters. oil production. to 150 page report with information

FPSOs (10) This perfect storm is clearly causing For starters, Petrobras will likely soon and analysis need to remain in con- • Kaombo CLM (Saipem) anxiety throughout the deepwater sup- lift the constraints imposed on who can tact with developments in the sector. • Kaombo GGC (Saipem) ply chain. However, in our view, it is bid for contracts. Prohibiting virtu-

WER also has developed an on- • Deep Producer 1 (TH Heavy) not a repeat of 2008/09, when the global ally all of its major local suppliers (plus line searchable ? oating production • Catcher (BW Offshore) ? nancial collapse caused oil prices to SBM) from bidding on new contracts database containing information • Armada Ali (Bumi Armada) crash and ? oater orders to dry up for 12 is hurting Petrobras as much as (may- on planned ? oater projects, ? oat- • Libra EWT (Teekay/Odebrecht) months. Unlike six year ago, the deep- be more than) the targeted companies. ing production system orders and • Madura BD (Bumi Armada) water market will not come to a stand- Common sense dictates it’s time to get installations currently in service. • Front Puf? n (Rubicon) still in 2015. on with normalizing business.

There is nothing like this database • Tartaruga MV 28 (Modec) Lower oil prices obviously decrease elsewhere! • Petrojarl 1 (Teekay) near term cash ? ow and impact the abili- 2015 Outlook for Floater Orders

Subscribers to the WER reports ty to fund capital spending. But the price More than a dozen ? oating production and database include many of the

FSOs (3) at which oil can be sold when the project projects in the advance planning stage major ? eld operators, contractors • Nong Yao (Omni) comes on line – not the current price – is have reasonable likelihood to move to and investment groups active in the • Rubicon Vantage (Rubicon) what determines projected return on in- EPC contracting for production facili- deepwater sector.

• Fois Nautica Tembikai (EA Tech) vestment. Deepwater projects take two ties within this year. These projects are to four years to come on line following likely to produce orders for three to ? ve

For more information, please see

Production Barge (1) the investment decision. The expected FPSOs in Brazil, two FPSOs in Africa, https://www.worldenergyreports.

• Jangkrit Barge (Saipem/Hyundai) price post start-up of the facility is what an FLNG in Africa, a production semi in com/reports. really counts. the GOM and several FSOs in SE Asia –

FLNGs (4) No one expects oil and gas prices to all within 2015. • PFLNG 2 (Samsung/JSC) remain at the level they have dropped to Details for 2015 expected orders are in 16 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • FEBRUARY 2015

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