Page 10: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (May 2015)

BY THE NUMBERS

Tankers Strong Market Extends Peak Season Earnings anker earnings for crude oil tank- tum going, keeping was around $29,000 ers have climbed to new strong the crude oil tanker per day. For Suez-

Tlevels in the ? rst quarter of 2015, earnings at a high maxes, earnings with averages not seen since 2008, the level. were at the same

Baltic and International Maritime Coun- The aver- level, around cil (BIMCO) reported. age earnings $50,000 per

The demand for crude oil tankers re- for VLCCs day in 2015 mains high even though the winter were around as compared months are far behind us. Following the $51,000 per to around winter peak season of 2013/14, crude oil day in the ? rst $31,000 in tanker earnings collapsed and remained three months 2014. As regards low during spring, before rebounding of 2015. That to the Aframaxes over the summer. In the winter peak of is 76% higher as the difference be- 2014/15, this has not been the case. The compared to the ? rst tween the two years market appears to have kept the momen- quarter of 2014, where it was a bit smaller howev- er still noticeable with around $40,000 per day in Q1 2015 up from around $29,000 last year.

Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO,

Peter Sand, said, “The strong winter market for crude oil tankers was in line with our expectations. But on top of that is this extended run of strong earnings that proves the window of opportunity is still open as a result of very advanta- geous ? eet growth levels for all crude oil tanker segments.”

Although the steady demand for oil has played its part in this year’s high rates, there is another more substantial factor in play. When we look at the ? eet development from the previous years, it is clear that the ? eet growth for the three crude segments has been low.

For VLCCs, the average monthly ? eet growth in 2014 was only 0.8% on a year- on-year basis. For Suezmaxes the num- ber was 1%. In comparison the year-on- year numbers for 2013 where 4.6% for

VLCCs and 6.8% for Suezmaxes.

For Aframaxes the numbers were even better. A decrease of 0.6% in 2013 compared to 2012 followed by another drop of 2.6% in 2014. A reduction of the ? eet has shifted the supply and demand curves and it is safe to say it has contrib- uted to keeping the earnings at the level we see today.

“BIMCO expects crude oil tanker supply growth at 2.2% in 2015. This is a three-year high. Fortunately, it’s still a level that should see healthy earnings for crude oil tankers throughout 2015, all other things being equal,” Sand added.

Source: BIMCO, Clarksons 10 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • MAY 2015

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