Page 16: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (May 2016)

LEGAL BEAT

The U.S. Election

Evaluating the Rami? cations for Maritime proverb common to both try to in? uence and change Iranian be- port for the end of the embargo, while

Greek and Turkish cultures havior.” These statements demonstrate characteristically noting that he would states that a wolf may change that while Secretary Clinton views the have “made a better deal.” John Kasich

A its fur, but does not change current Iran deal as a starting point, she has called the deal a “mistake,” while its nature (? ????? t?? t???a a????e?, has postured herself as more of a hard- Senator Cruz (who is of Cuban descent) t? ???? de? t`a????e? /Kurt tüyünü liner on Iran than President Obama. has publicly admonished the Obama degistirir, huyunu degistirmez). In Eng- Donald Trump’s views on Iran have administration for its policies and has lish, we might render this “a leopard can- wavered and changed over time. Al- closely tacked his party’s Cuba policy.

not change its spots.” If we are to believe though Mr. Trump initially signaled the proverb, looking at early statements mild support for the Iran deal (suggest-

Trump and platforms of the 2016 presidential ing he would “police” it), he has recently Other Sanctions candidates can provide valuable insight changed his approach, claiming now that Candidates from both sides of the aisle

Donald Trump has indicated mild sup- to the next president’s policies. The he seeks to “dismantle” the Iran deal. have ignored other U.S. sanctions pro- port for the end of the (Iran) embargo, maritime industry is impacted by foreign Governor John Kasich has taken a nu- grams during the campaign. As Secre- while characteristically noting that he would have “made a better deal.” affairs to a greater degree than many in- anced view of the deal. While he is on tary of State, Hillary Clinton promoted dustries worldwide. What is certain is the record opposing the deal, he has also democracy in Myanmar and planned in- that the global maritime industry, partic- signaled that enforcement of the current tervention in Libya, which could signal ularly the many companies operating in deal may be preferable to new sanctions. that her administration will support the

Greece and Turkey, will be impacted by The other candidates’ views of the Iran current sanctions in each country. But, the policies of the next president of the deal fall in line with their general politi- Senator Sanders opposed Libyan sanc-

United States. Understanding the “na- cal trajectory. Senator Bernie Sanders tions, indicating that the Libyan market

Clinton ture” of these candidates through their supports President Obama’s policy and could be further open to Greek and Turk- early policies and statements will allow views diplomacy and engagement as ish carriers should Mr. Sanders win.

Hillary Clinton is expected to make containing Iran one of her central companies to manage risk and properly the best means to achieve a nuclear-free foreign policy objectives. “Iran is still make any necessary changes to opera- Iran. Senator Ted Cruz has compared the

Geopolitical Issues violating UN Security Council resolu- tions before political change can impact Iran deal to the policy of appeasement in tions with its ballistic missile program, a company’s bottom line. the 1930s and has promised to “rip up” The maritime industry is impacted by which should be met with new sanc- the Iran deal. Given this political uncer- foreign affairs to a greater degree than tions designations and ? rm resolve.”

Sanctions tainty, companies should be prepared to many industries worldwide. Greek and “snap back” appropriate sanctions man- Turkish companies operate in a geopo-

Iran Sanctions agement techniques by early 2017. litical neighborhood, which presents

The majority of candidates take a unique challenges and business opportu- harder view on Iran sanctions than the Cuba Sanctions nities that the next President will impact.

Obama Administration, which raises Rapprochement with Cuba has been the risk that Iran sanctions will impact another key piece of the Obama Ad- Cyprus the maritime industry in 2017. This risk ministration’s foreign policy, the culmi- Cyprus presents opportunity for both could be particularly poignant in the nation of which will allow companies Greek and Turkish maritime companies,

Eastern Mediterranean, where Greek and worldwide to trade with both Cuba and both in terms of carriage of goods to and

Turkish companies are in a prime posi- the U.S. without penalty. The Democrat- from Cypriot ports as well as the poten- tion to capitalize on Iran’s “reopening.” ic Party candidates generally support the tial development of offshore resources.

Hillary Clinton is expected to make continuation of these policies. Although a major regional issue, Cyprus containing Iran one of her central foreign The Republican Party candidates gen- has received scant attention in either the policy objectives. Indeed, she has stated erally take a hard line on Cuba. The Re- Obama Administration or during the pri- that “Iran is still violating UN Security publican Party itself has called for both mary campaign. Secretary Clinton is

Council resolutions with its ballistic mis- the “dynastic succession of power within the only candidate with a track record sile program, which should be met with the Castro family” and “the legaliza- on Cyprus; in 2011, she called for a “bi- new sanctions designations and ? rm tion of political parties, an independent zonal, bi-communal federation” on the resolve.” In a recent debate, Secretary media, and free and fair internationally- island. The lack of positions signal that

Clinton stated that the normalization of supervised elections” as prerequisites for the United States will likely continue to relations with Iran “would remove one of the rollback of U.S. sanctions. However, pay little attention to efforts to reunify the biggest pieces of leverage we have to Donald Trump has indicated mild sup- the island.

(Of? cial portrait. Photo: U.S. Department of State) (Source: DonaldJTrump.com) 16 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • MAY 2016

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