Page 36: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (February 2021)

FPSOs

More than 90% of

FPSOs now in service are located in six major regions. Brazil 13% accounts for 29%,

West Africa 24%, SE

Asia 15%, Northern

Europe 13%, China 7% and Australia 24% 5%. The remaining 7% are spread over the Gulf of Mexico, 7% 29%

Eastern Canada,

SW Asia, and the 7

Mediterranean.

Source: © TAW4/AdobeStock ber of FPSO orders. We examined each FPSO project in the maining 40% of FPSO contracts will be with customers in planning queue to determine its probability to proceed to SEA/China, Africa, No Europe, Australia and other areas.

an investment decision by end-2025. The forecast takes into Based on experience of the past ten years, we expect account future oil prices, capex budgets, deepwater com- around 20% of future FPSO projects will involve use of a re- petitiveness and other underlying business drivers in each of deployed unit – and the number of FPSO contracts forecast three market scenarios – as well as each project’s status, barri- in our most likely market scenario will generate a require- ers to proceeding, size and quality of reserves, operator ? nan- ment for 8 FPSO redeployments over the next ? ve years. cial strength and capex allocation strategy and other factors. This redeployment requirement will not absorb all of

Depending on the future business scenario we expect the FPSO looking for new ? elds. Currently, 25 FPSOs are orders for 23 to 48 FPSOs over the next ? ve years. Our in layup. Of the units in layup, 14 appear possibly suited most likely forecast is 37 FPSO orders. This ? gure is 28% for redeployment. Including FPSOs now off ? eld and FP- higher than the number of orders placed over the past ? ve SOs that will likely end production by the end of 2025, years, during which 29 FPSOs were ordered -- but 26% there will be somewhere between 25 to 35 FPSOs available lower than the number of orders during 2011/15, when 50 for redeployment during the forecast period – at least 3X

FPSOs were contracted. the number of likely contract possibilities.

Orders for FPSOs will be skewed toward the later years in Capex associated with FPSO orders over the next ? ve the ? ve-year forecast period – re? ecting the expected con- years is projected to total $56 billion in the most likely tinuing impact of the COVID-19 over at least the next two scenario -- an average capex of $11.2 billion per year. years. Buying power for a large portion of FPSO contracts Details for all FPSO projects in the planning stage and will be centered in Brazil and Guyana/Suriname. These two our assessment of which speci? c projects will likely lead to areas are expected to account for more than 60% of the an EPC contract over the next ? ve years are provided in

FPSO contracts awarded between 2021 and 2025. The re- our forecast report. 36 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • February 2021

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