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next decade. Other new demand is fore- EAPAC and NAM are oversupplied component exchange (MCE) requiring a cast to emerge in SAM and ISC towards through the forecast. jack-up intervention, subject to activity the middle of the next decade. The bottom-? xed WTMV ? eet, both in the oil & gas market.

The 2035 forecast is ~17,900 com- early generation WTIVs and oil & gas There are many sensitivities to the missioned turbines. Over 70% of tur- maintenance and intervention jack-ups, forecast, which can both increase and bines commissioned in 2025-2035 are is forecast to stand at ~40 by end 2026 reduce vessel oversupply.

forecast to be bottom-? xed. Europe and is largely suf? cient to meet major There are many sensitives impacting accounts for ~70% of capacity addi- tions and EAPAC ~20%. Forecast sensi- tivities include the speed of adoption of larger turbines and the speed of project capacity development.

The specialist FFIV segment (=DP2 crane vessel with deck to carry several monopiles or jackets) excl. China will grow from 8 vessels to 9 by 2028 and is insuf? cient to meet global demand (excl. China) throughout the forecast.

Foundation vessel supply remains tight over several years of the fore- cast period when adding in foundation support from WTIVs. The FFIV and

WTIV ? eet is supported by 5 HLCVs and 4 HLSSs (=DP2 crane vessel with a smaller or no monopile carrying capaci- ty, often fed by barges, and also working in the oil & gas sector). Most can install

XXXL monopiles and large jackets. At a granular level, the European FFIV and WTIV supply will struggle to meet all European foundation demand in the forecast period and requires HLCV and

HLSS support. EAPAC is largely over- supplied with FFIVs throughout the forecast period, and both NAM and oth- er markets are undersupplied through- out the forecast period.

As bottom-? xed turbine and foun- dation sizes are forecast to continue to increase, available WTIV supply (excl.

China) capable of installing =15MW turbines is growing from none in 2020 to over 25 by 2028, made up of new generation high-spec vessels, designed to service larger wind farms built fur- ther offshore, and upgrades of earlier generation vessels. Supply is forecast to be able to meet global demand (excl.

China) through the forecast period, al- though Europe is forecast to see tight supply in the =15MW segment from 2032 and from 2030 for other markets. www.marinelink.com 19

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