Page 26: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (August 2026)

BATTERIES where, much of the value-added processing happens in China.

Supply Chain Risk Is Not Only About Mate-

According to di? erent estimates, China represents 60% to rial Availability

A key vulnerability in the battery value chain is dependence 90% of global installed cathode active material manufactur- on a limited number of countries supplying raw and processed ing capacity and more than 90% of anode material production. critical materials. In cobalt, 74% of global mine production is Even in recycling, China is expected to maintain a dominant concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo – much of position, accounting for over 80% of global pre-treatment and it developed with the help of China’s investment over the last 75% of material recovery capacity by 2030.

15 years. Any regulatory, (geo)political, logistics, or natural The scale of this concentration is also evident in installed disaster, such as the Ebola epidemic, disruption in the country, manufacturing capacity. Global Li-ion battery cell and ESS can a? ect physical availability and global prices. nameplate capacity exceeded 4 TWh by the end of 2025,

Lithium and nickel (cathode materials, like cobalt) sup- with China accounting for the largest regional share (Figure ply chains also remain highly concentrated (Figure 2). While 3). This dominance is reinforced by China’s broader strategy lithium has diversi? cation potential by 2030, copper faces a to control critical mineral supply chains through the Belt and growing risk of future shortages unless timely investment o? - Road Initiative (BRI) – up to 2021, Beijing provided nearly sets strong demand growth and declining output from existing $57 billion in aid and subsidized credit for transition-mineral mines. By 2030, in a conservative scenario, lithium demand projects across 19 BRI countries. Most of this ? nancing sup- could grow by 122%, cobalt by 42%, and nickel by 30%. ports assets in which Chinese ? rms have direct stakes – 83%

Graphite is also a major bottleneck. It is the basic anode ma- of o? cial ? nancing for transition-mineral operations in devel- terial for most Li-ion batteries, including both LFP and NMC. oping countries went to mining sites partly or wholly owned

This means that switching between battery chemistries may by Chinese companies. Critical minerals also feature promi- reduce cobalt and nickel exposure, but it does not eliminate nently in China’s recently announced 15th Five-Year Plan, graphite dependence. Chinese companies account for up to where they are positioned as central to scienti? c and techno- 80% of global natural graphite production. Meanwhile, de- logical innovation, self-reliance, and industrial leadership.

mand for battery-grade graphite could grow by more than four To note – capacity located in a country is not the same as to six times by 2035. that controlled by local producers. In China and Korea, most Another layer of vulnerability is processing and component installed capacity belongs to domestic companies. In the Eu- manufacturing. Even where raw materials are mined else- ropean Union and the United States, the share of local produc- 26 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • August 2026

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