Page 29: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Jan/Feb 2013)

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Global Forecasts 2013

Overcoming the global weakness

During the past few years, annual change in global oil demand has been running 0.8-1%/year and

D the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts it to continue in that range in 2013 – well below the previous 20-year 1.5% average annual increase seen before the global banking crisis. The weak global economy, which likely grew by about 3.3% in 2012, accounts for much of the restrained oil-demand growth. Improvement to 3.6% is forecast in 2013, slanted toward the second half. Energy ef? ciency improvements account for some of the subdued global demand growth, especially in OECD countries, where demand growth continues to be negative. In these regions growth over the next 30 years. The biggest grows 80%’, says the report (Figure was -1.1% in 2012 and is forecast to increase will occur in the electricity 1). drop 0.7% further to -0.4% in 2013, sector. That bodes well for natural Even more far-reaching, the with the US leading the decline, gas, which will overtake coal as forecast says that ‘around 2030, the despite improving economic the second-most-consumed fossil nations of North America will likely conditions. Demand outside the fuel. In the forecast, natural gas use transition from a net importer to

OECD is strong, likely growing at quadruples in (primarily heavy and a net exporter of oil and oil-based 2.8% last year, and is forecast by the marine) transportation use to 4% products’.

EIA to rise 2.6% this year. from today’s 1%. According to Barclay’s Capital, ExxonMobil just released its 2013 ‘All liquids’ oil demand will rise since 2000, global oil production forecast The Outlook For Energy: to 113mmboe/d by 2040 – a 30% has grown 14% and gas

A View to 2040. One of the key increase from 2010. This is just production 34%, but industry E&P ? ndings is that the company agrees under 1% average annual growth. expenditures were up 387%, to an with the forecasts of IEA, the US About 70% of that increase is in estimated $614 billion in 2012.

and others regarding oil demand the transportation sector, entirely John Westwood, group chairman and the OECD. Basically, the due to boats, planes, trains, and of the Douglas-Westwood research developed world will see negative heavy freight. Within the light and consultancy ? rm, comments: demand growth for many years to transportation sector, the number ‘In short, each year we are spending come, but this will be more than of vehicles is expected to double more and more dollars to recover offset by increased demand in the over 30 years but, in terms of fuel less and less oil. Much of this developing nations, mostly due to consumption, remain essentially trend is due to the decline of relentless population growth. The ? at due to ef? ciency gains. This conventional production, even net effect is that energy demand will also be true for overall energy in what we nowadays regard as will increase 65% in developing usage in OECD countries, as they “shallow water” such as the North nations, but because of negative will ‘keep energy use essentially Sea, where oil production is down

OECD growth, only 35% globally ? at, even as OECD economic output 48% since its peak in 2000, and oedigital.com January 2013 | OE 31 oe_forecasts1.indd 31 03/01/2013 13:30