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Perspectives and appraisal (E&A)

Rig supply and demand, wells will climb to 240 in 2013, and

Quick stats and E&A well count 100 500 above 350 by 2016,

OE ’s at-a-glance guide to offshore hydrocarbon

Figure 3. Growing 90 450 reserves and key offshore infrastructure globally is levels of activity are 80 400 supported by the updated monthly using data from leading energy 70 350 ongoing renewal 60 analysts Infeld Systems (www.infeld.com).

300 of the deepwater 50 250 fleet with high-

New discoveries Pipelines 40 200 specification new- (operational and 2013 onwards) announced

E&A Well Count 30 150 build mobile off- (last

Depth (km) month) 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 range shore drilling units 100 <8in

Shallow 93 102 72 14 (MODUs). More than 10 50 (<500m)

Operational/ (42,633) 100 new MODUs 41,744

Rig Capacity & Well Demand ('000 days)

Deep 0 0 28 25 23 6 installed (500-1500m) 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 have been delivered

Ultradeep Planned/ 29 20 34 9 (23,170) 23,273

Drilling Demand Rig Supply (>1500m) to the market since possible 150 147 129 29

Total

E&A Well Count (65,803) 65,017 2008, with a further

Note: Operators do not announce discovery

Source: Wood Mackenzie 90 expected by the dates at the time of discovery, so totals for 8-16in previous years continue to change.

end of the decade.

Operational/ (77,886) 77,255

Reserves in the

This more than doubles the available capacity. installed

Golden Triangle

Lest we forget, the strategic focus on deepwater has been

Planned/ by water depth 2013-17 (47,482) 47,029 possible driven by exploration successes many of which are now enter-

Water Field Liquid Gas (125,368) 124,284 depth numbers reserves reserves ing the development phase. So while the demand for explora- (mmbbl) (bcf) tion drilling grows, this is in conjunction with rising levels

Brazil >16in of development activity. An already tight rig market has been

Operational/ 25 3,236.75 1,680.00

Shallow (88,353) 87,825 installed further constrained as demands on the technical specifcation

Deep 16 3,257.00 2,255.00

Planned/ of rigs have grown in line with increasingly stringent operating (47,758) 48,217 40 12,428,45 17,340.00

Ultradeep possible and HSE regulations, as well as moves into ever more challeng- (135,670) 136,042

United States ing operating environments. While the current deepwater-rig, 21 96.45 1,253.50

Shallow new-build phase may be unprecedented in scale and duration,

Production 24 1,603.71 1824.87

Deep the combination of growing levels of exploration and develop- systems worldwide 24 2,925.00 3,340.00

Ultradeep (operational and 2013 onwards) ment drilling indicate that from 2016, we expect demand for (last

Floaters deepwater rigs to outstrip supply, resulting in constrained E&A

West Africa month) (274) 150 3,378.60 18,217.81 275

Shallow Operational activity. (46) 47 5,574.00 6,420.00 48

Deep Under development

Over half the newbuild rigs have been contracted by Majors 16 2,540.00 3,000.00 316 (315) and large-cap companies. Rigs have been used as leverage to

Ultradeep Planned/possible (635) 639 access exploration prospects, and with remote frontiers result-

Total 363 35,039.96 55,331.18 (last month) (365) (35,334.96) (54,631.18) ing in high rig mobilization costs, the frst-mover to drill in a

Fixed platforms basin may have an advantage.

Greenfeld reserves (9,878) 9,637

Operational

Companies of all sizes are experiencing a resurgence in frontier 2013-17 144 148 ( )

Under development

Water Field Liquid Gas exploration. Although the challenges of exploring and develop- (1,467) 1,475 depth numbers reserves reserves

Planned/possible (mmbbl) (bcf) ing frontiers can suppress value and returns, the rewards can be (11,493) 11,256 1,334 78,915.96 835,641.99

Shallow sizeable. Rigs are available in the near term to facilitate an upturn (last month) (1,349) (78,930.66) (837,296.39)

Subsea wells in frontier exploration activity. The coming transition from acre-

Deep 168 14,304.58 84,711.57 (4,426) 4,411

Operational (last month) (171) (14,524.58) (87,046.57) age capture to frontier drilling will trigger a phase of portfolio (393) 393

Under development adjustment with farm-in opportunities. Much of this activity 99 18,322.45 65,907.00

Ultradeep (last month) (99) (18,322.45) (67,197.00) (5,981) 5,981

Planned/possible represents the normal risk-spreading process before drilling, as (10,800) 10,765 1,601 111,542.99 987,610.56

Total early entrants look to share well costs. These acreage deals will be essential to sustain an upward trend of frontier drilling. 

Global offshore reserves (mmboe) onstream by water depth 2011 2012 201320142015 20162017

Julie Wilson, Senior Analyst, joined Wood Mackenzie’s 10,421.19 6,130.72 65,204.92 32,401.99 42,849.50 31,609.6454,536.19

Shallow

Exploration Service team in January 2011, following 11 (last month) (10,429.53) (6,125.23) (65,466.32) (34,157.68) (41,087.23) (31,629.57) (54,574.12) years in upstream consulting and research. Prior to Wood

Deep 1,312.212,533.96 3,616.76 5,845.40 4,351.94 5,177.22 10,258.72

Mackenzie, she worked eight years for BP in the UK in (last month) (1,316.73) (2,533.96) (3,652.02) (5,830.40) (3,968.34) (5,424.56) (10,996.57) political, commercial, and fnancial analysis, focusing on 199.94 737.15 3,090.44 3,075.06 1,789.91 6,108.56 16,114.35

Ultradeep (last month) (199.94) (797.15) (3,090.44) (3,075.06) (1,948.73) (5,949.75) (16,114.35) upstream assets. Wilson earned a BA Honours in Spanish 11,933.34 9,401.83 71,912.12 41,322.46 48,991.36 42,895.43 80,909.26

Total and French from Heriot-Watt University, and an MSc in 14 June 2013

Marketing from University of Strathclyde.

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