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Global market forecastGlobal market forecastGlobal market forecastGlobal market forecast 100% 90% 34% 34% 34% 80% 45% 45% 45% 45% 21% 21% 21% 70% 2014

A year of growth with caution ith the world economy once are expected to be brought onstream; record-breaking discovery to production again on an upward trajec- driven by ? elds offshore Asia where time of just 40 months, while Phase 2 of

W tory, 2014 is likely to see a In? eld Systems forecasts a total of 27 gas Jubilee (Hyedua) is anticipated to enter number of key oil and gas projects rise developments to enter production during production during the course of 2014, to the fore. Meanwhile, exploration and the year. Within the Middle East region taking just seven years from discovery to production trend towards evermore the giant South Pars (Phases 13-14) and on-stream date. At the other end of the challenging waters and is anticipated to Qatar North Field dwarf all other devel- spectrum, Nigeria’s shallow water ? elds remain central to the leading operators’ opments, while offshore Europe, In? eld expected to enter production during 2014 investment strategies over the coming Systems expects a total of 21 shallow average discovery to production times of year. At the same time, however, signi? - water gas ? eld developments to com- 26 years, re? ecting the challenging oper- cant challenges remain; uncertain energy mence production. ating environment within the country prices are likely to be reinforced by the Looking at those ? elds, which pre- and preference of IOCs towards deepwa- changing international tide towards dominantly hold oil reserves, and beyond ter ? eld development.

Iran, while political unrest within North the giant shallow water development In capital expenditure (capex) terms,

Africa is unlikely to abate in the near of Arkutun Dagi (Sakhalin 1), the trend shallow water developments are expected future. On a global level, operators will towards deepwater development con- to form the largest share of global invest- need to accommodate the emergence of tinues. Offshore Latin America and the ment during the forthcoming year, with shale gas as an investment alternative as Gulf of Mexico developments are also the North West European Continental part of their development strategies. The characterized by relatively short times Shelf (NWECS) and Southeast Asia antic- re-assessment of development budgets between discovery and onstream date – ipated to require particularly high levels may also rise as the industry moves into averaging around ten to eleven years. By of shallow water spend. While develop- an increasingly capital-intensive stage of comparison, in the European region, dis- ments in less than 500m are expected development, driven by the prospectivity covery to onstream times average some to hold the largest share of capex, when of ? elds within harsh environments, and 20 years, driven primarily by the growth looking at the top ten operators in isola- remote and deeper waters. of marginal ? eld developments offshore tion, 63% of expenditure for 2014 is

Altogether, In? eld Systems expects UK. Within the African region, the expected to be attributable to deep and 183 developments to enter production nature of development is far more varied. ultra-deepwater developments. Although during 2014. A large number of shallow Tullow’s development of the Jubilee ? eld NOC Petrobras leads deepwater develop- water, predominantly gas developments, offshore Ghana has been renowned for its ment, a signi? cant share of deepwater 2014 gas reserves (BCF) on-stream 2014 oil reserves (MMBBL) on-stream

Others

Others 14% 16%

Iran

Brazil 24%

UK

UK 31% 3% 2%

Venezuela

Russia (Sakhalin) 3% 2%

Norway 3%

Iran 5% 3%

Indonesia 4%

Malaysia 6%

Nigeria 14%

Russia (Sakhalin) 5%

Venezuela 7%

Norway 6% 18%

Saudi Arabia 7% 10% 10%

Qatar 7%

China (PRC)

Angola

Australia

USA

Source: In? eld Systems’ Market Modelling and Forecasting SystemSource: In? eld Systems’ Market Modelling and Forecasting System

January 2014 | OE oedigital.com 24 024_OE0114 CovStory_MktForecast1_infield.indd 24 12/19/13 4:22 PM