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activity peaked in 2007-08.

In 2008, 121 wildcat and appraisal wells were drilled at the UKCS and 444

MMboe of oil and gas were discovered.

Since then the exploration activity has decreased and in 2014 only 38 explo- ration wells were drilled and only 98

MMboe of oil and gas were discovered.

Northwest Europe

Glancing ahead towards 2020, the portfolio of stand-alone candidates that could spur UK green? eld investments is limited to a handful. The Culzean ? eld is the ? rst runner up. Operated by

Maersk Oil, it could see a ? nal invest- ment decision in August 2015 with startup in 2020-2021.

The ? eld is to be developed with bridge linked platforms including a central pro- cessing facility, a wellhead platform, and combined utility-living quarters. The total investment for the project is expected to

Challenging times be in excess of $4.7 billion.

Chevron has not given up on its chal- companies spent about $51 billion in lenging Rosebank development west

Europe is facing a tough

Clair Ridge modules onboard 2014, a 6% growth from 2013. The of Shetlands and Statoil is expected to

Dockwise’s transport Mighty Servant downturn, but it will not vessel earlier this year. Photo from BP.

Norwegian oil and gas sector is far from decide on a concept for the Bressay heavy last forever. Rystad’s Audun sheltered and is expected to decline in oil ? eld in 2015. The British government 2015 by about 9%. has introduced different measures for

UK Continental Shelf

Martinsen takes a look.

The UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) was Most of the decline is driven by capex tax reduction, supporting investments in surpassed by the NCS to be the largest oil cuts, estimated at about 11%. The drop maturing offshore prospects and explora- and gas market in 2006. In 2014, the UK is an effect of a normalization of extraor- he development of offshore oil tion, to improve the dark outlook. There almost closed the gap with $46 billion dinary activities from the 33 green? eld and gas reserves in Europe is is still potential to maximize the recovery

T expenditure on upstream activities. developments committed to between losing relevance in the battle with from the UKCS, and hopefully, through 2015, on the other hand, will be 2010 and 2013, such as Gudrun, Goliat, shale resources in North America and the ? scal changes and the current cost much more dramatic for the UK than Eld? sk II. In addition, it is also the effect conventional oil in the Middle East. cutting schemes, there could be a signi? - for Norway. The money spent will drop of cost cuttings and ef? ciency programs The ongoing ? ght over market share cant upside. has ? ooded the market with cheap oil by Statoil. Statoil aims to reduce their by more than 20%, and we will see the

Other Northwest Europe and resulted in a lowering of the oil price maintenance, modi? cation and opera- spend contract even more in 2016, before stabilizing at around $35 billion at the tions budget and increase the drilling to a level that makes the resources in Outside Norway and the UK, the market end of the decade. ef? ciencies substantially. mature offshore basins more challenging has been declining since 2008. From $9

The reason for this immense drop is Looking towards 2020, there are a lot to develop. billion in 2008, 2014 clocked in at $6.5 an extreme case of what we observed of uncertainties in investment estimates, Offshore producing countries in Europe billion. The Netherlands and Denmark in Norway – record high oil prices and speci? cally regarding the sanctioning are ? ghting escalating costs and opera- have been the key drivers of this decline. in? ation, which led to massive invest- of new projects and exploration levels. tional inef? ciencies to become more com- In general, these markets are mainly ments and rejuvenation programs in old For example, Statoil has pushed back petitive in the new world order of oil. driven by brown? eld spend at exist- discoveries and ? elds. the ? nal investment decision (FID) on In 2014, we saw more than US$100 ing producing ? elds. There is limited

Some 58 green? eld investments started both Johan Castberg and Snorre 2040 – billion being directed to the development exploration and new developments, but between 2010 and 2013, such as Clair both expected to be multi-billion dollar and production in Northwest Europe some other basins show positive signs.

Ridge, Quad 204 and Mariner. So when projects with new platforms (? oaters); for the ? rst time ever. This equates to an In Ireland, there is good progression completion simultaneously occurs and FID’s are now expected by 2H 2017, with average 9% annual growth from 2009- around the Barryroe development, and investments stop, there are only a few startup around 2022-2023. 2014 and was caused by more activity smaller undeveloped discoveries can new discoveries to be developed. With this current timeline, these proj- and higher unit costs in both Norway and become commercial with new developed

The current ? eld development boom ects are important to meet the forecasted the UK. infrastructure. observed on the NCS includes a healthy 2020 expenditures of about $55 billion. Even with rising demand of oil and oil In Iceland there is still an unrealized mixture of old discoveries having

Other key projects are Johan Sverdrup prices, we do not expect the spending to potential at the awarded Dreki region matured into economical projects and phase 1 and 2 and potential develop- grow to these levels again for the rest this and future license rounds in the North discoveries made over the last decade. ments of the Skarfjell, Alta/Gohta and decade. Companies will conserve cash, East. Although some growth is expected

Comparing discovered volumes at the

Pil discoveries. In the current forecast, focus on completion of existing projects from 2016, the offshore European market

NCS with the UKCS, pinpoints one a relatively ? at exploration capex at and await the business outlook. will still be dominated by the markets in of the key issues for the UKCS – that around $5-6 billion has been assumed Norway and the UK, and both will see

The Norwegian Continental Shelf exploration results have been per- from 2016 onwards after peaking at $7 a new wave of importance at end of this sistently poor and on decline since billion in 2014. In Norway, exploration and production decade.

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