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An illustration of BP’s Mad Dog gineering, procrurement and com-

Phase 2 semisubmerible, designed missioning contract with Maersk

KBR/GVA, which the designers say that will see the unit constructed by is inspired by BP’s Atlantis platform .

SembCorp Marine in Singapore for

Image from KBR.

the high-pressure, high-temperature

The ? oating

Culzean project in the UK sector of forecast accounting for the probabil- the North Sea. Furthermore, Golar ity of 1-2 further units in 2015.

LNG exercised their second option with Keppel to construct 2016 – FPS award candidates the third GoFLNG, the Golar Gandria.

The ? nal month of 2015 provides slight potential for For 2016, Quest’s projects a moderate improvement in FPS production market: further ? oating production awards by yearend. Eni’s Coral awards compared to 2015 as operators and the wider sup-

South FLNG (Mozambique), Talisman’s Ca Rong Do tension ply chain better adjust to commodity price conditions, cost leg platform and FPSO (Vietnam) and Husky’s Madura de? ation improves project economics, and development

MDA-MBH FPSO (Indonesia) are presently tendering. It projects delayed from earlier years come to fruition.

is, however, very unlikely that all three of these projects BP’s Mad Dog phase 2 development provides an optimistic award before yearend, with Quest’s present mean case example of a project that has seen its fair share of delay dur- 2016 & beyond ing a period of elevated crude prices but appears to be a strong candidate for a 2016 ? nal investment decision and FPS award. Table 1: FPS Projects – 2016 Award Potential

The project was originally focused on a spar design coined

Operator Project Province FPS Type “Big Dog,” which was put on hold in April 2013, due to the

BP Mad Dog Phase 2US Gulf of Mexico Semi technical complexity of a heavy topsides and cost concerns.

BP Hopkins US Gulf of Mexico Semi

BP has since simpli? ed the FPS, now based on a KBR/GVA

Shell Vito US Gulf of Mexico TLP semisubmersible design, and has been able to signi? cantly

Pemex Ayatsil-Tekel Mexico FPSO lower project development costs to below US$10 billion, ac-

Sonangol Cameia Angola FPSO cording to Upstream Chief Executive Lamar McKay in BP’s Q3 2015 results. Earlier cost estimates for the project employing

Shell Bonga SW/Aparo Nigeria FPSO the Spar were ~$20 billion.

Eni Etan/Zabazaba Nigeria FPSO

In addition to the three projects mentioned previously,

Namcor Kudu Namibia FPSO there remains several FPS projects with award potential in

Woodside Browse FLNG AustraliaFLNG 2016 (see Table 1).

CNOOC Liuhua 11-1 China FPSO

While the above projects present near-term potential based

CNOOC Liuhua 11-1 China TLP on current development status and operator plans, it is un-

CNOOC Liuhua 16-2 China TLP likely that all come to award within 2016. Quest’s proprietary

Santos Ande Ande Lumut IndonesiaFPSO forecasting methodology is constructed to discount these op-

Octanex Ophir Oil? eld MalaysiaFPSO* portunities and account for potential delays with 11 FPS units

Shell E6 SK 308 MalaysiaFPSO* forecasted for 2016 award in the mean (middle) case.

Penguins

Shell UK FPSO

Redevelopment

Andrew Jackson serves as Quest

Kangaroo/Echidna

Offshore’s market research & database

Karoon Brazil FPSO

EPS manager, where he works with the Quest

Petrobras Libra Pilot Brazil FPSO

Research Team to conduct research &

Petrobras Sepia Brazil FPSO analysis on offshore project development.

Premier Oil Sea Lion 1a Falkland Islands FPSO

Jackson graduated from Texas A&M

Liza Early Prod.

University with a BBA in Information &

ExxonMobil Guyana FPSO

System

Operations Management.

* Indicates projects likely to utilize an existing, leased FPSO

The drilling rig support module is removed from its

Source: Quest O