Page 24: of Offshore Engineer Magazine (Nov/Dec 2024)

23 25

MARKETS EXPLORATION

Source: Welligence

Looking Ahead:

Five Trends Shaping 2025

By Ruaraidh Montgomery, Global Head of Research, Welligence Energy Analytics [1] Flat Outlook for Global Spend … but … [2] Almost 50 bnboe of Reserves Up for Grabs

Advantaged Projects Attract Capital

We expect year-on-year M&A activity to remain relative-

With concerns of a softening oil market, we expect glob- ly steady. Most deal-making (as usual) will occur onshore al upstream investment to remain fat or even fall – indeed, North America, in the US and Canada, with consolidation the reported 2025 budgets to date show a 3-4% drop. This remaining an underlying theme. But given the levels of doesn’t mean companies won’t pursue new projects, but large-scale activity that have taken place, especially in the only the best will pass strict hurdle rates. We estimate Permian, a certain level of asset high-grading can also be spend north of $50 billion will be allocated to new green- expected as the buyers optimize their portfolios. Activity in feld projects, similar to this year, potentially unlocking other basins, like the Bakken, may start to pick up.

over 8 bnboe of reserves. Consolidation will continue to be a theme as companies

The most high-profle development that could be sanc- seek scale and it has just been confrmed that Kosmos is in tioned is TotalEnergies’ Venus project in Namibia. We talks regarding a possible takeover of Tullow. We expect the also anticipate a wave of multi-tcf gas developments will NOCs of the Middle East to continue their international move forward – in the Eastern Mediterranean, Chevron acquisition drive, and we may also see bp and Shell, both could sanction Leviathan Phase 2 (Israel) and Aphrodite of whom have pivoted their strategies back towards oil & (Cyprus), while Eni may take FID at Cronos (Cyprus). gas, chasing opportunities. There are plenty of opportuni-

New gas projects are also in Southeast Asia, like Eni’s Geng ties with the likes of Chevron and Occidental executing

North and INPEX’s Abadi LNG (both Indonesia). multi-billion dollar divestment programs.

24 OFFSHORE ENGINEER OEDIGITAL.COM