Page 14: of Maritime Logistics Professional Magazine (Q4 2013)

InsightsAker Shipbuilding CEO Kristian Rokke, for example, em- braces the ?direct exposure to the shale boom and ? the risk/ reward of the investment.? Any loosening of crude oil export limits and/or a soften- ing of the Jones Act would therefore likely spell an end to the kinds of creative newbuild deals emanating from Aker that also help to sustain the current shipbuilding boom. A variation on this approach is the suggestion that the U.S. export light crudes (produced from shale), in an agreed swap for supplies of heavy crudes- suitable for many U.S. re neries.Tanker trade patterns over a longer period are also highly uncertain. Attendees at numerous industry events and sym- posiums have heard that product movements are set to grow, which in the short term, appears to be the correct call. Over time, as drilling techniques successfully  netuned in North America spread across the globe, major ?importers,? notably China, thought to be a big component of VLCC demand in the coming decade, may have their own versions of the Energy Renaissance. Likewise, LNG trades may be impacted by vast amounts of shale gas thought to exist in China, but also in Algeria and Argentina. Another set of questions, presently without real answers, concerns the move of offshore oil exploration and production into deeper waters. Like ?tight oil,? tapping offshore reserves becomes economical at higher oil prices. But, with vast new hydrocarbon supplies available onshore, will moves into in- hospitable regions (for example, the Arctic reaches) and ultra- deep waters continue to be viable? And, if not, is the OSV building boom for the expected deepwater play also sustain- able? And, of course, the big elephant in the room is the price of crude oil ? with futurists wondering what might happen in the event of a prolonged lowering of the prices across the entire hydrocarbon barrel.In the end, there will be benefactors and casualties as the ultimate outfall from ?America?s Energy Renaissance.? More immediately, it is changing the equation of the energy trans- portation business and the countless variables that form the sum of its whole.Source: BDP1 Consulting 14 I Maritime Professional I 4Q 2013MP #4 1-17.indd 14MP #4 1-17.indd 1412/11/2013 1:19:46 PM12/11/2013 1:19:46 PM