Page 8: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (April 1974)

Shipping Executive

Predicts Oil Imports

Will Triple In 1970s

White there are grave uncertain- ties in the picture of world oil sup- ply and demand as a result of Mid- dle East and other developments, it is expected that U.S. tankerborne imports of oil will more than triple during the 1970s.

The projection was made in Tul- sa, Okla., before the "Symposium on Transportation Developments of the 70's," at the 76th National

Meeting of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers. It was offered by Philip J. Loree, chair- man of the Federation of American

Controlled Shipping (FACS). FACS members control 85 percent of the

U.S. Effective Control tanker fleet, and also own and. operate more than half of the U.S.-flag tanker fleet. (The -U.S. Effective Control fleet is made up of U.S.-owned Li- berian and Panamanian tankers and bulk carriers which have 'been com- mitted to the United States by their owners in times of national emer- gency.)

Mr. Loree forecast that U.S.- waterborne imports will escalate from 2.7-million barrels a day in 1970, to more than 9-million bar- rels a day in 1980. He stressed that his projections were essentially va- lid "assuming that the oil embargo is lifted and that 'limitations on foreign oil production are removed."

The FACS chairman explained that although the figures were based on a study completed before the

Arab boycott, they remained ap- propriate because they were con- servative. He also pointed out that the study was limited to 1980, mak- ing it further appropriate because "Project Independence cannot re- alistically ibe expected to produce energy self-reliance until some time in the 1980s."

Mr. Loree pointed out that U.S. production df crude oil is peaking, and has not been able to foe devel- oped fast enough to keep pace with the growing demand. Of particular significance, he said, is the fact that in 1970 America's primary source of imported oil was Venezuela— only 1,800 miles from U.S. East

Coast terminals. By 1980, Mr. Lo- ree explained, "it is anticipated that 60 per cent of all U.S. crude oil im- ports will come from the Middle

East, 1-1,500 miles away from the same terminals."

The FACS chairman estimated that another 15 percent of crude oil imports will come from northern and western Africa, and the remain- der from South America. At the same time, he said that tankerborne petroleum products will foe import- ed from Europe, Canadian and Ca- ribbean refineries.,

Mr. Loree said that by 1980, assuming that U.S. deepwater fa- cilities were available, oil imports will require 135 "small" tankers of 45,000 deadweight tons each, 285 "medium" tankers o'f 70,000 dead- weight tons, and 72 Very Large

Crude Carriers (VLCCs) of 250,000 tons. Should deepwater terminals not be available to accommodate

VLCCs, the 1980 requirements would demand a fleet of 135 small and 555 medium tankers. He com- pared these numbers to 1970, when the fleet needed was equal to only 89 small tankers and 14 medium tankers.

Mr. Loree pointed out that the projected figures are only for the

U.S. oil import trades and do not include domestic tanker trades— nor the oncoming Alaska-to-U.S.-

West Coast trades. Neither do they include tankers required to cover shipments of crude oil from oil- producing nations to offshore re- fineries and transshipment termi- nals, such as those in Europe,

Canada and the Caribbean.

Matson Promotes

Choo And Faria

Matson Navigation Company,

San Francisco, Calif. 94105, has promoted S.H. (Sam) Choo to the newly estafolished post of regional freight operations manager, north- ern California, and Fred E. Faria has foeen promoted to assistant re- gional freight operations manager.

Mr. Choo was formerly regional container operations superintend- ent. Mr. Faria was formerly assist- ant regional container operations superintendent.

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