Page 86: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 1996)

DOE Report:

Oil Consumption To Rise 44%

A new study by the U.S. Department of

Energy's (DOE) Energy Information

Administration estimates that worldwide oil consumption will continue to rise over the next two decades, increasing by 44 percent and adding 30 million barrels a day to the interna- tional oil flow. According to the study, by the year 2015, world oil demand will increase from the present level of about 69 million barrels daily to 99 million barrels.

The study, entitled International Energy

Outlook 1996 With Projections to 2015, antici- pates that world oil supplies will be able to meet the growing demand, although there will be increases in cost and increases in carbon emissions because of the greater use.

A large amount of future oil production will continue to come from Persian Gulf OPEC members, the study says. Persian Gulf OPEC production is expected to represent more than 40 percent and possibly as much as 52 percent of world oil demand, forecasts indicate.

The report says Persian Gulf OPEC produc- tion is expected to range from 41 to 52 percent of world oil production, or from 37.8 to as much as 53.5 million barrels daily. Persian Gulf

OPEC members now produce about 18 million barrels a day, which amounts to approximately 29 percent of total world oil use. The report notes that worldwide oil reserves, which have been primarily in OPEC nations since the 1980's, may also show marked increases in non-

OPEC areas in the next 20 years . "In the late 1980s," the report says, "more than 350 billion barrels of crude oil reserves were added worldwide. The additions were made predominantly by the OPEC nations, almost 94 percent of the total."

Although OPEC crude oil production has been increasing steadily since the mid-1980's, according to the study, "crude oil production from non-OPEC suppliers has shown surprising resilience over the past two decades, increasing by more than two-thirds."

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that of the more than 450 billion barrels of undiscov- ered oil that may be recoverable, about two- thirds may come from non-OPEC producers. "In this context, one may conclude that OPEC could potentially remain at less than a 50 per- cent share of worldwide production even in the face of strong demand growth for at least the first two decades of the next century," says the

DOE study.

The Energy Department data indicates, how- ever, that OPEC countries will continue to have great influence on the world oil market, specifi- cally saying that it assumed that "the OPEC countries with large reserves that can be exploited at relatively low cost will have the

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Circle 153 on Reader Service Card

Maritime Reporter/Engineering News

The Pro's Choice © Alaska Diesel Electric A183-B

M40C, 40 kW shown with pump for wet exhaust.