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greatest influence on future oil market conditions."

It estimated that OPEC produc- ers may grow at such a "robust" annual rate of 3.5 percent in pro- duction to exceed 55 million bar- rels daily by the year 2015. "This outlook assumes that Iraq will resume exports in 1997 and will gradually build up its output to almost 3 million barrels per day by the year 2000," the report said. (Note: At press time Iraq, under a new agreement with the United

Nations, was expected to resume oil exports this year.)

The report forecasts a continued decline in North American pro- duction, including in the U.S., but foresees that U.S. production will recover somewhat and, by 2015, "is expected to return to current production levels." "Due mainly to the decline in

U.S. production," the report says, "North American output will show steady decline into the early years of the next century. "Canada's output should increase modestly over current levels, declining only slightly by the end of the forecast period.

Offshore discoveries in the Gulf of

Mexico, incremental Alaskan pro- duction from Cook Inlet, and tech- nological advances in extraction methods reverse the downward trend in U.S. production for the remainder of the forecast period.

By 2015, U.S. production is expected to return to current pro- duction levels."

The study says that, although there have been "serious declines" in oil production in the former

Soviet Union in the 1990s, "large- ly because of the economic prob- lems of the post-Communist era," new data suggest that the down- ward trend may have ended at a low point of about seven million barrels daily. "A gradual recovery is expected over the remainder of the decade, but no significant production gains (in the former Soviet Union) are anticipated before the turn of the century," the report notes.

New Underwater Welding

Process Approved By LR

Lloyd's Register of Shipping has reportedly given approval to a new process of underwater weld- ing developed by U.K.-based UMC

International Pic for permanent repairs to the shell plating of a ship. The technique allows defec- tive areas of shell plating to be cut out and replacement insert plates to be welded into place beneath the waterline while ships are afloat, which is accomplished by the creation of an air-filled void space underwater in was of the defect.

UMC's process overcomes the necessity of welding from both the inside and outside by employing a combination of Tungsten Inert

Gas (TIG) and conventional weld- ing, using low hydrogen elec- trodes to overcome the difficulty.

June, 1996

The repair is then examined using ultrasonic and magnetic particle examinations.

UMC's Managing Director

David Jones explained: "Getting a welder who is a diver or putting a ship into drydock for repair are both expensive. This new method uses the specialist skills of diver and welder and effects a perma- nent repair from inside the ship ...

It also overcomes the traditional reluctance of classification soci- eties to accept any form of under- water welding for permanent repairs to shell plating.

We expect other classification societies to follow Lloyd's in approving this new technique shortly."

For more information on

UMS International Pic

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O'Connor Named Lykes

Fleet Commodore

Joseph O. O'Connor has been named Commodore of the Lykes

Steamship fleet. Capt. O'Connor is master of the M/V Stella Lykes, a 2,800-TEU containership newly deployed in service between North

Europe, Mexico and the U.S. He has sailed with Lykes for 35 years. {johnCmei

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