Page 88: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 1996)

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Circle 157 on Reader Service Card

An Emerging Economic

And Industrial Power

The pending elections in India may go a long way towards establishing the country as a serious economic, industrial and trading power on the world stage. The process of economic liberal- ization initiated by the Rao government has been gaining speed since 1991, unleashing notions of privatization previ- ously held in check. The Indian market has appealed to traders and investors for some time. The attractions include a large population (estimated at 901.5 mil- lion), an economically competitive work- force and a commitment to democracy.

The gradual easing of the state's grip is enabling this appeal to turn into some- thing more tangible, resulting in Indian trade and shipping becoming important factors in the international equation.

Drewry's latest report, India — The

Emerging Economic And Industrial

Power: The Potential Impact on World

Shipping and Trade, concludes that what- ever the election result, few expect to see the liberalization process reversed.

However, Drewry predicts that the econo- my may take "one step back for every two steps forward." Consequently,

Drewry expects to see Indian exports expand over the next 10 years by approx- imately 25 to 30 million tons. The major export cargo — iron ore — may show lit- tle growth, but gains are expected in the agribulks sector, in alumina traffic and in the steel and manufacturing sectors. By 2005, India's imports — in terms of ton-

I nage — may be close to double current levels and in reaching this conclusion,

Drewry's report takes a conservative view on key growth trades such as coal and oil/refined products. The biggest difficul- ty India faces is matching political will to program funding. Domestic resources are insufficient for meeting the require- ments created by infrastructure and other products. External funds — most likely channeled through joint ventures — are vital, given reports that the states and

India's financial institutions only have approximately $7 billion to cover all infra- structural spending. Vast sums are need- ed for industrial ventures and power gen- eration projects — a sector being close- ly monitored by coal suppliers.

Also critical is the position of India's ports. Congestion is a serious problem; and there is talk of crisis in the ports.

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Circle 410 on Reader Service Card 78H » ^ • - •. •—••••^••••^•••^Raansi awwmsasSSKai Estimated Indian imports (in millions of tons)

Crude oil

Refined prod

Other liq. bulk

Fertilizer/raw matls • Other