Page 19: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 2015)

end, the U.S. Department of Defense together the total integrated survivabil- continues to accelerate the development ity program, which allows navies to un- and adoption of modeling and simula- derstand the combat capability and per- tion (M&S) capabilities in order to re- formance characteristics before any ship duce weapon system acquisition costs steel (or aluminum) gets wet.

and provide developmental and opera- The use of M&S to supplant live ? re tional test and evaluation to assess com- testing is not without detractors how- bat capability and performance prior to ever – after all M&S software technolo- delivery. gies in the real world are not like we see

These M&S software and engineering on television. We are still learning some tools are designed to simulate the ship’s: of the chemistry, physics, biology and mathematics and it’s not as simple as • Susceptibility (realistic battle 2+2 – that we can do. But accurately and engagements including the tracking and precisely predicting how a missile frag- prediction of missile and torpedo seek- ments, how underwater explosive bub- ers against the ships signatures and the bles form and collapse, or how weapons targeting of the ships combat systems to induced con? agrations progress is dif- counter the threat); ? cult – and add onto that attempting to predict crew actions (which is like try- • Vulnerability (physics based ing to predict the next viral cat video) ... prediction of battle damage inclusive of well… we’re still at 2+2 = 4.1573 (close ballistic impact, blast, shaped-jetting, but not quite). structural failure, equipment failure, Conversely, with Full Ship Shock system damage and crew injury); and Tests (FSSTs) and Total Ship Surviv- ability Trials (TSSTs) costing a naval program between $20 and $40 million • Recoverability (assessing cas- (that’s 5 to 10% of the ship acquisi- cading system failures, ? re and smoke tion cost), and land-based test sites for spread, and ? ooding). Additionally, newer technologies costing the same or more advanced programs like Alion’s more, and the Navy frowning on any full

MOTISS (Measure of Total Integrated scale potentially-destructive testing con-

System Survivability) solution assess ducted on their $400 million to $1 bil- man-in-the-loop operations and human lion dollar plus investments, the reality systems interactions — such as ? re- is that the nation can’t afford to live ? re ? ghting, system isolation, jumpering test everything, yet suf? cient live ? re and damage control repair — bringing tests are needed to truly quantify a ship’s Image © Alion Science and Technology www.marinelink.com 19

MR #6 (18-25).indd 19 MR #6 (18-25).indd 19 6/9/2015 10:23:54 AM6/9/2015 10:23:54 AM