Page 20: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 2015)

EYE ON DESIGN combat capability and performance.

Pioneering statistician William Gosset developed the statistical model to prove

Graphical output from this point. Called the “Student’s t-test,”

Alion’s MOTISS solution it deals with problems associated with inference based on a “small” number of showing initial impact and data points. Skipping the complex math, what Gosset identi? ed was that if you fragmentation of only have 5 test results then the average result will be within +/- 1.241 standard explosive weapon.

deviations of the real result and if you have 10 test results then the average re- sult will be within +/- 0.715 standard de- viations of the real result. So, assuming an acceptable 5% standard deviation with 5 live ? re tests: 2+2 = between 3.752 and 4.248; and with 10 live ? re tests: 2+2 = between 3.857 and 4.143. Even at a mini- mal estimated price of $10 million for an FSST, that means adding $50 to $100 million to already expensive vessels to get the same answer from LFT&E as we do from M&S.

The approach in proving our naval ships’ combat capability and performance prior to delivery, therefore, is to couple

Alion’s MOTISS solution allows prediction of signatures, weapons damage and pro- gressive systems recovery providing users a comprehen- sive view of ship survivability within a single M&S package. Image © Alion Science and Technology Image © Alion Science and Technology 20 Maritime Reporter & Engineering News • JUNE 2015

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