Page 35: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (June 1998)

THE UGER \

J/ M » • -

Tanker time charter earnings ($'000/day) 3-month moving average

W.Afr- Car/USiS 100-

Tanker fine charier earnings (S'OOO/day) 3-monrii moving average WJfr- Car/DSES 100-160

MSmkaif W

Tanker time charier earnings

ISWrkiy)3-monlli moving overage Mert-M 70-100 [_,_ £ M J S DM J S D M J S DeoM

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Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. range from 10-50,000 dwt, with more than 90 percent of vessels in this size range falling into this cat- egory. A smaller number of vessels ranging up to 110,000 dwt are also able to carry refined products, usu- ally finding employment from the

Middle East to Asia. And there are literally a couple of vessels above 110,000 dwt with products carry- ing capability, but these are geared for oil companies' specific trades.

The level and direction of crude and refined product trades deter- mines the demand for oil tankers.

Changes in trade patterns can have a significant impact on demand. The supply of tankers is derived from the balance between vessels delivered to the fleet (usu- ally from a lead time of around 24 months) and those deleted when they are technically obsolete (cur- rently around 25 years of age, with smaller vessels having a longer life).

The tanker market was charac- terized by a serious recession through the mid-1980s as a result of high oil prices which curbed oil demand. But in the latter part of the 1980s the scrapping of vessels, combined with renewed oil demand growth, brought the mar- ket steadily back into balance.

The market peaked in 1990/91 as a result of the Gulf crisis, and this prompted a surge in speculative orders (i.e. vessels without cargo guarantees).

As a consequence, faltering eco- nomic growth combined with an expansion of the fleet in the early 1990s, has resulted in rates once again being depressed. An increase in demolition levels and a slump in orders kept tanker sup- ply in check, and with strong eco- nomic growth, the result in the period 1996/97 has been for rates to strengthen appreciably once again.

For several years there has been a perception that, as the tanker fleet ages, a number of vessels will inevitably have to be scrapped. As a consequence it has been antici- pated that a strong level of new-

June, 1998 Circle 150 on Reader Service Card

Tanker time charter earnings ($'000/day) 3-month moving average

Med- Med 70-100

Tanker time charter earnings ($'000/day) 3-month moving average

Car- USES 25-35

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