Page 19: of Maritime Reporter Magazine (February 2003)

A new business study entitled The World Marine

Propulsion Report 2003-2007* predicts that newbuild deliveries measured by tonnage will grow by four-per- cent over the five years, against a fall in vessel numbers of 10-percent.

However, the propulsive power embodied in the new- build influx should increase by eight-percent compared with the 1997-2002 period.

The market for main engines, typically accounting for around 60-percent of overall propulsion system val- ues, is likely to be worth around $2.7-2.8 billion annu- ally throughout the period from 2003 to 2007.

After falling back from an estimated 2002 peak of 15,100-MW to 14,479-MW in 2004, it is anticipated that new main engine installations will increase in aggregate power over the next few years, attaining more than 15,500-MW in 2007. The rise in unit power needs will be greatest for containerships and passenger and cruise vessels, in keeping with growth in ship size and no lessening in speed criteria.

The study is the work of business analysts Douglas-

Westwood and marine industry data providers. Using information from the databases of worldwide vessels of 100-gt and above, The World Marine Propulsion

Report gives a detailed analysis of the sector and shows the trends impacting on engine deliveries over the past five years as well as projections for the period to 2007.

A specially developed model has been used to fore- cast the market during the next five years. This takes into account major influencing factors such as oil prices, increasing vessels sizes and power needs, and changes and developments in global trade patterns.

The results are output as a series of tables and charts forecasting sales from 2003 to 2007 by differing types of propulsion systems, both in units and U.S. dollar values, segmented by region and vessel category.

For the five-year forecast period from 2003 to 2007, it is anticipated that global shipbuilding activity will be driven by growth in seaborne trade in the order of two to three-percent per annum.

However, as average ship size increases, the number of newbuild deliveries will be fewer, and the report's compilers expect numbers to reach a low point in 2004.

Civil marine gross tonnage production, though, is fore- cast to rise by four-percent, with a minimum comple- tion level of 30-million gt in any year.

The annual output value of ships delivered is expect- ed to vary between $36-billion and $38-billion. The value of the propulsion systems is calculated at

February 2003 between $4.8-$5 billion per annum throughout the period, with the main engine or prime mover element reaching $2.9-billion by 2007.

The report anticipates that the two leading main engine designers, MAN B&W and Wartsila, will main- tain their share of the market over the five-year period, accounting for around 75-percent of the total propul- sive power requirement of all newbuilds, and about 70- percent of the value. In terms of the number of main engines, the three market leaders, namely MAN B&W,

Wartsila and Caterpillar, are expected to account for 55-percent of the annual influx.

Japanese producers and licensees are expected to deliver the greatest value of main engines, although

South Korea and China should show the highest rate of growth. Attributed values of overall propulsion system installations in newbuilds for 2003 - 2007 are in the order of $1.21-1.25 billion for bulk carriers and cargo vessels, $1.17-1.29 billion for tankers, and $1.05-1.20 billion for containerships.

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