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MARKETS EXPLORATION future option. Chevron estimates ultimate recovery at duction, a fgure that will grow signifcantly as more 20k ~440 MMboe. projects come online. Within the next decade, we forecast

Recent BSEE regulatory updates have increased the al- the Lower Tertiary will account for nearly 50% of total lowable downhole commingling pressure differential in deepwater production in the US GoM, including:

Wilcox reservoirs from 200 psi to 1,500 psi. Operators • Shenandoah: The Beacon Offshore Energy proj- may now combine multiple zones with broader pressure ect is scheduled for start-up in June 2025, with four wells variation, subject to fuid compatibility and safety stan- online by year-end. The 120,000 bbl/d semi-sub FPU will dards. In the context of the Inboard Lower Tertiary, where be expanded to 140,000 bbl/d under Phase II. The facility

Wilcox pay intervals may exceed 1,000 ft, this change is will serve as a regional hub, with tiebacks from Monument expected to signifcantly reduce drilling and completion (2026) and potentially Shenandoah South (unsanctioned).

costs while enhancing recovery effciency through multi- • Sparta: Formerly North Platte, the project was zone completions. DOI estimates the new rule could boost sanctioned by Shell in December 2023. Development will production by up to 10%. utilize a 100,000 bbl/d semi-sub FPU, similar to the Ma- jor’s Vito and Whale. First oil is targeted for 2028.

• Kaskida: Sanctioned by bp in July 2024, Kaskida

What’s Next – All Eyes on Shenandoah as 20K Trend Builds Momentum will be developed through an 80,000 bbl/d semi-sub FPU

Chevron’s Anchor marks the beginning of a new wave with frst oil expected in early-2029. The company plans of large-scale 20k developments in the Gulf of America/ to follow with Tiber (FID expected 2026), also a stand-

Mexico, with several high-pressure projects slated to come alone facility. Gila, Guadalupe, and Chevron’s Gibson may online by decade’s end. Currently, the Lower Tertiary con- be tied in later. bp estimates the broader Kaskida-Tiber tributes over 300,000 bbl/d to deepwater US GoM pro- area could hold up to 10 Bnboe of recoverable resources.

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