Page 6: of Marine News Magazine (April 2023)

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By the

Numbers

US Offshore Wind Pushing Forward,

But Short-term Cost Concerns Linger

By Philip Lewis, director of research, Intelatus Global Partners

As we move through the ? rst few months of 2023, we note both positive and negative trends developing in the U.S. offshore wind segment.

As an indication of the long-term sustainability of the off- developers of around 20 GW of East Coast capacity, have shore wind industry in the United States, federal agencies are recently reported worrying cost trends for their projects. We ? nalizing the auction by the middle of this year of three Gulf continue to watch for potential impacts on project schedules.

of Mexico sites that will support a minimum of 3.6 gigawatts Our forecast accounts for close to 70 projects that will (GW) of offshore wind capacity. This capacity is likely to install over 78 GW of capacity in this and the next decade come onstream early in the next decade. Including the Gulf and a total 110 GW by 2050. The 78 GW forecast ca- of Mexico sites, federal authorities will have leased sites with pacity will require capital expenditure amounting to over a cumulative generating capacity of 60 GW. Further, federal $240 billion to bring onstream, a recurring annual opera- authorities to continue to re? ne eight potential lease areas in tions and maintenance spend of around $11 billion once the Central Atlantic for auction in the ? rst quarter of next delivered, and close to $35 billion of decommissioning ex- year and are also analyzing suitable sites off Oregon and in the penditure at the end of commercial operations:

Gulf of Maine. Funding continues to be made available for Two major Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) projects the supply chain, port and transmission system development with around 940 megawatts (MW) of capacity have been required to support the forecast offshore wind build-out. permitted, taken a ? nal investment decision (FID) and

Despite federal authorities auctioning sites with around 60 one has commenced offshore construction and the other

GW of potential to developers, till now only 17.5 GW of the is preparing for offshore construction.

capacity has secured offtake commitments from East Coast The number of projects that are expected to make an states. North and Mid-Atlantic States plan an additional 16 FID within the next 18 months is 13 amounting to around

GW of offtakes in the short- to mid-term and have identi? ed 13 GW of capacity.

as much as a further 20 GW of longer-term capacity goals. A further six projects with a capacity of close to 3 GW are

While the long-term foundations for the sector continue expected to make an FID within 18-36 months as well as to solidify and support the deployment of 30 GW of offshore an additional 13 projects for over 15 GW in 36-60 months.

wind by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, the short-term situa- Longer term, we have identi? ed 35 projects with a total tion remains a concern. Ørsted, Avangrid, Dominion and capacity of 45 GW, which support the installation of a cu- the shareholders of SouthCoast Wind (formerly May? ower), mulative 75 GW by 2035 and over 80 GW by 2040.

© Fokke Baarssen / Adobe Stock 6 | MN April 2023