Page 21: of Marine News Magazine (March 2022)

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Feature

Inland Waterways

Medium term trends on the waterway system were dis- cussed within a detailed study on the waterways released by

Vanderbilt University in September 2021. The authors not- ed, “The last 20 years validate that the underlying markets relevant to barge demand are stable and resilient, and the summary outlook for 2025 anticipates that tonnages will be slightly lower and ton-miles slightly higher than 2019.

The increase in ton-miles is in spite of a reduction of tons and is the result of a generally bullish outlook for the agricultural sector, which is expected to increase by nearly 15%. Most agricultural barge transports are also longhaul shipments of 1,000 miles or more. In short, the U.S. is expected to retain its position as one of the world’s larg- est grain exporters.” The USDA, in its 2021 “Agricultural

Projections to 2030”, shows small, but steady growth in exports (which drives barge traf? c into the Lower Missis- sippi region) for the major grains.

While agricultural moves are likely to grow, the oppo- site is true for coal. The Vanderbilt University researchers note that “…the energy sector sees the most signi? cant projected change, re? ecting a continuing decline in utility coal use, and the beginning of a gradual shift away from petroleum use across numerous economic sectors as de- carbonization policies and practices are implemented, im- pacting overall re? ned petroleum demand.” Similar views can be seen at the level of individual ports. For example, in a Kentucky Economic Development Summit, held in

Spring 2021, scenario-based forecasts for 11 individual riverports out to 2045 (prepared by IHS Markit) were pre- sented. A number of ports saw grain replacing coal as the top commodity handled; in those ports handling coal, its moves fall substantially under the varied scenarios.

ber 30 Grain Trade Report. Michael Steenhoek, executive The forecast for the tank barge marketplace is upbeat. In director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, in speaking a conference call accompanying the release of Kirby’s 2021 with Marine News, stressed the linkages between the export fourth quarter earnings, company CEO David Grzebin- markets and agricultural transportation on the rivers, not- ski told investors: “In inland marine, we expect a strong ing that the U.S. exported 60.5 million total metric tons market in 2022 driven by continued economic growth, of soybeans in the marketing year ended August 31, 2021 increased volumes and minimal new barge construction. adding that, overall, 35 million of the total went to China. This should contribute to further improvements in the

He said the leading export region is the Mississippi/Gulf, spot market with our barge utilization ranging in the high- accounting for 27 million tons in the 2020/2021 marketing 80% to low-90% range for the year.” He did caution that year. He said that, normally, around 60% of U.S. soybean “the ? rst quarter [would be] the lowest due to seasonality exports will come out of that region, with the overwhelm- and the headwinds related to COVID with the positive ing majority of that arriving via barge transportation. pricing environment building throughout the year.” For www.marinelink.com MN 21|