Drewry Study Says Cheaper Oil Prices Will Boost Tanker Trade

According to a new study from Drewry Shipping Consultants, cheaper international oil prices will prove a major boost to tanker trade levels.

Titled "The Outlook for Oil Trades to 1995," the Drewry report says if the spot crude price stabilized around $20 a barrel before gradually rising to $30 between 1990-95, the tanker trade would rise by only about 1 percent per annum to 1.725 billion tons.

However, if spot prices were forced down to $15 by 1992, the oil trade would show a healthy growth of around 3 percent a year by 1995.

If oil prices are forced to much higher levels then, conversely, trade would decline much as it did after the price increases of 1979-80. The decline then in trade would be almost 2 percent a year to about 1,530 tons in 1995. Andy Carpenter, Drewry managing director, said in all cases little growth was likely to occur in 1991-92, and most would take place from 1993 onward.

Trade in refined products will tend to show faster growth than crude oil, the study says. The main growth on products trade routes would be from the Persian Gulf/Red Sea to Japan, North America and Europe.

Other stories from May 1991 issue


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