World Bulk Fleet Expected To Increase Moderately For Next Few Years

For the next few years, the world bulk fleet is expected to increase moderately at an annual rate of about 1.8 percent, according to the research department of the Oslobased shipbroker and consultant Fearnleys in its review, World Bulk Fleet January 1991.

Fearnleys expects, based on general market expectations and estimates of shipyard capacity, it will rise to around 516.5 million tons by January 1994, from a figure of 489 million dwt last month.

The tanker feet may increase from 246.4 million tons to 271.3 tons, and the dry bulk carrier fleet from 211.1 million tons to 214.4 million tons. The combination carrier total could decrease slightly from 31.5 million tons to 30.9 million tons.

The predictions assume modest levels of ship demolition, which may be significantly higher than in 1989 and 1990, because of the poor technical condition of several of the older and larger units.

The fleet was augmented by 7 million tons in the second half of 1990 and 7.5 million tons in the first half of 1990. Peak year for the fleet was 1982, when it totaled 520.1 million tons.

The world orderbook for such tonnage decreased by 2.3 million tons during the second half of 1990 to 49.7 tons.

Japan and Korea together accounted for 68 percent of the world orderbook. Japan's increased from 19.6 million to 20.2 million tons, whereas South Korea's decreased from 15.4 million to 13.3 million tons.

During the second half of 1990, worldwide contracting decreased sharply to 6.7 million tons, of which the majority was tankers, at 5.9 million tons, following the first-half total of 20.2 tons (tankers 15.3 million tons, combination carriers 2.1 million tons, and bulk carriers 2.8 millions tons).

Maritime Reporter Magazine, page 16,  Apr 1991 West Coast

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