'U.S. Oil Imports, Policies And Tanker Shipping'
U.S. domestic crude oil and natural gas liquids production peaked in 1970, and after remaining nearly constant for the following two years, fell steadily until 1976, with output from Alaska providing an upsurge in 1977. However, even in 1977, production estimated at 466 million tons was up by only 5 million tons from the previous year, and down by some 60 million tons from the years of peak production.
U.S. oil consumption has not declined, or even remained static during the 1970s. In consequence, U.S. oil imports have grown from some 200 million tons in 1971 to some 430 million tons in 1977.
The growth of U.S. seaborne oil imports has been a major generator of world tanker demand during the past seven years.
"U.S. Oil Imports, Policies and Tanker Shipping," Study Number 66 in a series produced by the Research Division of H.P. Drewry (Shipping Consultants) Limited, provides a detailed analysis of developments in U.S. oil imports since 1970 and the related development of tanker demand to serve the U.S. trades. The analysis shows that there has been a distinct difference in the development of crude oil imports/crude oil tanker demand, and the trend of refined products trades/products tanker demand. Thus, between 1970 and 1977, U.S. seaborne crude oil imports increased by nearly fivefold to some 310 million tons, while conversely U.S.
domestic seaborne crude oil movements fell from 40 million tons to 17 million tons (reflecting the shortage of domestic crude availability and the decline in movements from the U.S. Gulf to the Eastern Seaboard). During this same period, both the seaborne imports of refined products, and their domestic coastwise trade was constant overall, varying from year to year between 90 and 140 and 54 and 63 million tons, respectively.
In terms of tanker demand, the above figures indicate that the tanker requirement to transport U.S. crude oil imports increased from some 4 million deadweight tons in 1970 to 46 million dwt in 1977, with domestic crude oil tanker demand of another 1-2 million dwt and with total products carrier demand in the range of 8 to 11 million dwt throughout.
The growth in tanker demand generated by crude imports arises not only from the larger volumes mentioned above, but also from the increased imports of medium/ long-haul crude oils from North and West Africa and the Middle East that has occurred as crude availability in the Caribbean, the traditional source of U.S. imports, has peaked. In the global context, the total tanker demand generated by U.S. trades appears to have risen from some 11 percent of total world demand in 1972 to about 27.5 percent in 1977, with a remarkably large increase in relative share between 1976 (22 percent) and 1977 — indeed, it appears that tanker demand resulting from non-U.S. trades probably fell in 1977 (reflecting low demand growth for oil and the advent of new crude supplies, such as the North Sea, located close to major centers of demand).
From these comments, it is evident that future developments in U.S. oil import requirements could be critical to the development of the worldwide tanker industry.
Between now and 1985, U.S. crude oil imports (ex. domestic trades and movements from Alaska) are seen as reaching a peak of some 350 million tons/ year in the early 1980s and declining thereafter to some 280 million tons by 1985, as new supplies of crude become available from the "lower 48." On the other hand, the imports of refined products by the U.S. are forecast to increase rapidly after 1980 (from 240 million tons in 1980 to 420 million tons in 1985), reflecting the development of a shortage of refinery capacity in the U.S. Overall, the U.S. is seen as requiring about one-third of all the volume of oil and products moved by sea during the period 1980-85 (up from some 28 percent in 1977).
In terms of tanker demand, the fleet needed to t r a n s p o r t U.S.
crude trades is projected to be some 52 million dwt in 1980, and some 38 million dwt in 1985. The products carrier demand is seen as doubling from 9 million dwt in 1977 to 18 million dwt in 1980, and then increasing to 40 million dwt by 1985. It is evident that this change in the structure of U.S. generated tanker demand could have a profound effect on the tanker market worldwide.
It has frequently been suggested that U.S.-flag tankers should be guaranteed a share of the tanker demand generated by U.S. oil imports. An examination of the supply of U.S.-flag tankers indicates that this fleet was some 11.5 million dwt at the end of 1977, and is likely to peak at some 15 million dwt in 1980 but remain above 14 million dwt up to 1985.
In terms of the tanker demand arising as a result of forecast U.S. oil imports levels, this fleet represents between 18 percent and 21 percent of the total (but these figures do not show separately U.S. coastal trades already r e s e r v e d to U.S.-flag tonnage).
However, if tankers owned or held on long-term charter by U.S. companies operating under non-U.S.
flags are taken into account, it is found that only in 1985 is there a deficit of U.S.-controlled tonnage in relation to U.S.-generated tanker demand. Thus, given the introduction of some form of U.S.
oil cargo preference, it seems certain that there will be immediate pressure for the re-registration of non-U.S.-flag U.S.-owned tankers under U.S. flag.
"U.S. Oil Imports, Policies and Tanker Shipping," No. 66 in a series of reports on various aspects of shipping prepared by the Research Division of HPD Shipping Publications, 34 B r o o k Street, Mayfair, London W1Y 2LL, England, is available at a single copy rate of U.S. $85 (all overseas orders) or £35 (U.K. only), or on a subscription basis U.S. $325 (all overseas orders) or £135 (U.K.
only) for the series 61-70.
Other stories from November 1978 issue
- Bourceau And Blackwell Speak At Bureau Veritas 150th Anniversary Dinner page: 4
- Approve Procedures Necessary To Implement Change In CDS Rate page: 4
- Port Of Portland's Drydock —Largest On West Coast— Arrives At Swan Island Yard page: 6
- American Atlantic Shipping Launches First Ship — The M/V America page: 7
- Levingston Awarded $200 Million To Build Five Bulk Cargo Ships page: 8
- $156 Million To Avondale To Construct Catugs For Service To Soviet Union page: 8
- Griffiths Receives Title XI To Build Tug And Barge page: 8
- Title XI Approved For Manatee Integrated Tug-Barge Units page: 10
- General Electric Credit Appoints James Kuklinski page: 11
- MarAd Awards Five Research Contracts page: 11
- SNAME Annual Meeting page: 12
- Baker Marine Enters License Agreement With Argentine Corporation page: 12
- John T. Gilbride Named Whitehall Club President page: 12
- SNAME San Diego Section Discusses Heavy Lift Ship Design And Costs page: 14
- First Kelvin-Powered Shrimp Boat Built In U.S. page: 14
- Interocean Management Elects Steele President page: 14
- USMMA Alumni Honored At Kings Point Dinner page: 15
- ExecuSearch Moves To New Modern Quarters page: 15
- Title XI Amendment Approved By Mar Ad For Drilling Barges page: 16
- Edward Robertson Named Engineering Director At ORBA Corporation page: 16
- Marine Diesel Engineering— A Continuing Education Program page: 16
- Second Of Four Triple-Deck TMT Barges Placed In Service page: 16
- Hillman Barge And Construction Names Ira Singleton VP page: 18
- Bethlehem Beaumont Shipyard Delivers Fourth Offshore Rig To Teledyne Movible Offshore page: 18
- Halter Delivers Oceangoing Tug To Jackson Marine Corp. page: 18
- Clyde Iron Develops New Crane For Ports And Shipbuilding page: 18
- H.M. Tiedemann & Company Completes Vibration Analysis Survey For Canadian DOT page: 18
- Nilsen Named President Bailey Refrigeration And Affiliated Companies page: 20
- Ted Ellis Joins Crowley Maritime page: 20
- Mon River Towing Buys Fleet Of Coal Barges page: 20
- Offshore Logistics Buys Six Theriot Towing/Supply Vessels page: 22
- Chemical Tanker Demand Subject Of MarAd Study page: 22
- United States Navigation Names William Kelly VP page: 22
- Proform Announces New SFRP Corrugated Lift-Off Barge Covers page: 23
- Gladding-Hearn To Construct Boat For Pilots Association page: 23
- Yards Requested To Bid On 320-Foot Ferry For Cape May-Lewes Service page: 24
- Anthony McAllister Honored By Stevens Tech page: 25
- IMODCO Receives $6-Million Contract From Argentine Firm page: 25
- 188,500-DWT Tanker For Transport Of Alaskan Oil Christened At National Steel And Shipbuilding page: 25
- Mobil Oil Installs MVI Entertainment System On Nine Ships page: 26
- Iran Orders Floating Dock —First Such Contract For Kawasaki Heavy Industries page: 26
- SNAME New England Section Hears Two Technical Papers page: 27
- Gulf-Tampa Drydock Names Marvin DeBerry page: 27
- Murdoch Opens Office In Portland, Oregon page: 27
- New Radiotelephone Available From Apelco page: 27
- 'U.S. Oil Imports, Policies And Tanker Shipping' page: 28
- Sembawang's Latest Facility— A New $9-Million Finger Pier page: 28
- Carrington Slipways Launches Three Vessels In One Week page: 28
- Three R Trusts Requests Title XI To Construct Tug/Supply Vessel page: 29
- American Bureau Of Shipping Announces Elections Of Officers And Appointment page: 30
- Needed — A Long-Range National Shipbuilding Policy page: 30
- Moran Shipping Elects Philip Moran President page: 32
- Three Papers And Tour Of Caterpillar Plant Features SNAME Section Meeting In Peoria page: 32
- Hewitt-Robins Publishes Tri-Language Brochure On Cargoveyor Systems page: 34
- U.S. Shipyards Receive Contracts For 25 Ships- January To October '78 page: 35
- Apache Awarded First Contract To Lay Pipe page: 36
- Sembawang Appoints David Chen Yard Manager page: 36
- Coastal Towing, Inc. Building Two Towboats, Nine Tank Barges page: 37
- Guralnick Organization Relocates To Enlarged Facilities In San Francisco page: 37
- SNAME Los Angeles Hears Paper On Calculation Of Curves With A Hand Held Calculator page: 37
- Guralnick Associates Receives DOE Contract page: 38
- Arno Dimmling Rejoins Crowley Maritime Corp. page: 38
- Sun Ship Lays Keel For Matson Containership page: 38
- SNAME Gulf Section Holds Fall Meeting page: 38
- BSRA Receives Support For Research Into Quieter Ships page: 40
- Halter Crewboats Delivered For Indonesian Operations page: 40
- Twin-Screw Bridge Maintenance Tug & Firefighter page: 42
- Kawasaki Converts Semi-Passenger Into Full-Passenger Ship page: 42
- MarAd Releases 58-Page Publication On U.S. Port Industry page: 42
- Kvaerner-Moss, Inc. Appoints James Victory page: 43
- Union Mechling Corp. Appoints David Gladwell page: 43
- Containership S/S Argonaut Launched For Farreil Lines By Bath Iron Works page: 43
- Maritime College Earns Further Accreditation page: 44
- Waukesha Engine Names C.E. Lee President page: 44
- Goodway Introduces New Heavy-Duty Tube Cleaner page: 45
- American Bureau Classes 55 Vessels In September page: 45
- Irish Citizens To Train At Deepsea Diving School In U.S. page: 48
- Chevron U.S.A. To Start Drilling Test Well Offshore California page: 49
- National Safety Council Marine Section Elects Capt. S. Fraser Sammis page: 49
- American-Flag Ship Operators Call For Policy That Works page: 50
- Change Of Shareholding At A & P Appledore International page: 52
- Schoolship Reunion Hears Peter Stanford On National Ship Trust page: 54
- National Supply Names Kelley Sales Engineer For Offshore Platforms page: 54
- Marine Insurance Seminar To Be Held In Jacksonville, Florida page: 57
- Gregor G. Peterson Named President Genstar Pacific Corp. page: 58
- Butterworth Systems Names Paul Paraskevas Technology Advisor page: 58
- Hawaii, Lockheed, Dillingham Announce They Will Build, Operate Ocean-Fueled Energy Pilot Plant page: 60
- N. Dwain Wheeler Heads New Ship Repair Yard —Port Houston Marine page: 62
- Jones Oregon Stevedoring Elects Earl F. Weiss Chairman Of The Board page: 62
- S.S. United States Sold To Seattle Firm As-Is For $5 Million page: 64
- General Instrument Announces Improved Design Pressure Gauge page: 65
- Congressman John M. Murphy Presented With Maritime Industry's 'AOTOS' Award page: 66
- Marland Appoints Peter Gast GmbH Sales Agency In Germany page: 67
- ASNE Establishes Scholarship Program For College Students page: 68
- Lloyd Anderson Elected Chairman National Waterways Conference page: 68
- Sperry Division Designs Steering Gear Failure Alarm And Flash System page: 69
- ICHCA Cargo Conference To Hear 22 Speakers Nov. 13-15 In New York page: 70
- Northeast Marine Terminal Names Johnson Top Financial Officer page: 71
- Officials Cited For Safety Presentations page: 72
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- Gibbs & Cox Receives OTEC Design Contract page: 75
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